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Confluence Investment Management
China
Strait Of Hormuz
Long-Term Treasuries
Hard Assets
US Dollar Stablecoins
Persian Gulf
Oil
Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Federal Reserve
Inflation
National Security Strategy 2025
Bank Of Japan
United States
Donald Trump
Taiwan
People's Liberation Army
Technology
Crypto
Oil Prices

Podcasts from Confluence Investment Management LLC, featuring the periodic Confluence of Ideas series, two bi-weekly series: the Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly and the Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report (new episodes posted on alternating Mondays), and a new monthly Q&A format called the Confluence Mailbag.

PublishesTwice weeklyEpisodes308Founded11 years ago
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Artwork for Confluence Podcasts

Latest Episodes

Of what value to investors is a Federal Reserve Board chair who is a consensus builder? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to tell us why this is important.

In this month's Confluence Mailbag, Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller examine what Iran's shift to yuan-denominated oil transactions means for the dollar's reserve currency status and why viable alternatives remain elusive. They assess widespread concerns... more

The world has seen additional evidence this year that the United States is no longer the dominant power it once was. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how investors can manage this new reality.

The war in Iran is an event that is likely to change for the long term the way corporations manage their supply inventories. Think high instead of just in time. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss w... more

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Recent Guests

Bill O'Grady
Confluence Advisory Director
Confluence Investment Management LLC
Episode: Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Strategic Petroleum Reserve: A Primer (3/30/26)
Kaisa Stucke
Chair of the Asset Allocation Committee
Confluence Investment Management LLC
Episode: Confluence of Ideas – Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q1 2026
Thomas Walsh
Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist
Confluence Investment Management LLC
Episode: Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Warsh Doctrine (2/17/26)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez
Chief Market Strategist (guest on episode)
Confluence Investment Management LLC
Episode: Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – US Foreign Policy: Comparing the New vs the Old (2/9/2026)
Thomas Wash
Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist
Confluence Investment Management LLC
Episode: Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Erosion of Exorbitant Privilege (2/2/26)

Hosts

Phil Adler
Host contributing multiple roles across Confluence Investment Management, including periodic market and geopolitical discussion segments.
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez
Chief Market Strategist; frequent guest offering macro, geopolitical, and policy-driven investment context.

Reviews

4.9 out of 5 stars from 38 ratings
  • Humble firm

    Been working with the core group for over 25 years

    Just humble philosophy who want to help people. They have been a blessing in my life and others. Smartest folks I have ever seen that don’t have to tell you how smart they are

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Tom Henrichs
    United States3 years ago
  • Wicked Smart

    Probably the smartest group of Analysts and managers available. They offer all research for free. Feel blessed to have them managing part of my assets. Not flashy but consistent, Enough skepticism to allow me to sleep at night.

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Marv1226
    United States6 years ago
  • The best!!!

    I’ve been following the confluence investment team from their website for over 3 years now. For the very best on geopolitics, history & economics , look no further. I’m glad the podcasts are back !!

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    johnny.zim
    United States7 years ago

Listeners Say

Key themes from listener reviews, highlighting what works and what could be improved about the show.

Humble firm; thoughtful, knowledge-driven insights.
Best in geopolitics, history, and economics; content is consistently high-quality.
Wicked Smart; best-in-class analysts with skeptical rigor.

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Talking Points

Recent interactions between the hosts and their guests.

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Great Chinese Purge (2/27/2026)
Q: Patrick, why these purges now?
The aging leadership around Xi has concentrated power, heightening loyalty incentives and creating accountability pressures that push for purges as a way to consolidate control and reduce governance risks, particularly in critical military sectors where readiness is paramount.
Confluence of Ideas – Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q1 2026
Q: How do you factor a potential catastrophic geopolitical event into your portfolio recommendations?
Geopolitics are treated as an uncertainty rather than a forecastable event, so diversification and risk management are emphasized to preserve durability and prevent overly concentrated outcomes, with gold acting as a hedging stabilizer across strategies.
Confluence of Ideas – Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q1 2026
Q: Turning to inflation, how do you view the inflation path and Fed policy?
Inflation is expected to moderate from peak levels but stay above the 2% target; the Fed can stay more dovish if labor softens, yet longer-term yields may stay elevated due to fiscal issuance, tariff-related inflation risks, and term premium rebuilding, guiding a balanced approach across equities, fixed income, and gold.
Confluence of Ideas – Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q1 2026
Q: What do you mean by base case being steady policy-supported environment?
The base case envisions continued near-trend growth with low but non-zero recession risk, supported by more dovish monetary policy and ongoing fiscal support, which means we don't need dramatic portfolio swings but rely on disciplined, incremental changes within a repeatable framework.
The Confluence Mailbag – Global Shifts and the Next Market Drivers (2/5/26)
Q: Why does the White House want a weak dollar and what policies have they enacted to make it happen?
They discuss that a weaker dollar would help reduce the trade deficit by raising import prices and boosting exports; however, actual steps have been gradual, relying on jawboning, tariffs, and pressure on monetary policy rather than immediate, sweeping actions, with risks if the policy is pursued too aggressively.

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Frequently Asked Questions About Confluence Podcasts

What is Confluence Podcasts about and what kind of topics does it cover?

The program delivers high-signal analysis at the intersection of macroeconomics, geopolitics, and asset allocation. Episodes commonly explore energy markets, global risk, and policy shifts, with practical investment implications and hedging ideas across hard assets, Treasuries, and equities. A recurring strength is translating complex geopolitical developments into actionable portfolio positioning, often featuring long-tenured industry voices and macro strategists who blend history with current market dynamics. The format—primed for institutional listeners and professional investors—frequently includes scenario analysis, portfolio frameworks, and takeaways on how to navigate volatility while pursuing inflation hedges and diversification. No... more

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Which podcasts are similar to Confluence Podcasts?

These podcasts share a similar audience with Confluence Podcasts:

1. Capital Ideas podcast
2. Barron's Streetwise
3. Barron's Advisor
4. The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing
5. Odd Lots

How many episodes of Confluence Podcasts are there?

Confluence Podcasts launched 11 years ago and published 308 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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What guests have appeared on Confluence Podcasts?

Recent guests on Confluence Podcasts include:

1. Bill O'Grady
2. Kaisa Stucke
3. Thomas Walsh
4. Patrick Fearon-Hernandez
5. Thomas Wash

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