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Artwork for Baird Fixed Income Insights: Convexity Pulse

Baird Fixed Income Insights: Convexity Pulse

Kirill Krylov
Housing Market
Mortgage-Backed Securities
MBS
Federal Reserve
Mortgage Rates
Gses
Inflation
Mission Loans
Low FICO Loans
MBS Market
Foreign Buyers
Agency MBS Market
Agency MBS
Housing Affordability Crisis
Iranian Nuclear Facility
Builder Sentiment
Florida
Securitization Rates
Demographics
Property Taxes

Baird's Fixed Income Portfolio Strategy & Analytics Manager, Kirill A Krylov, PhD, CFA, offers our institutional investors a weekly discussion on the most recent Agency MBS market developments. From regulatory updates and changes in government mortgage programs to convexity-enhancing specified pool features, we highlight the most relevant news for MBS investor consideration. Robert W. Baird & Co. ... more

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Artwork for Baird Fixed Income Insights: Convexity Pulse

Latest Episodes

In this week’s Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov discusses how improving technicals, declining volatility, and strong performance in production coupons are shifting the return profile in MBS from spread compression toward carry. He highlights the evolvi... more

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer discuss how markets are digesting a recent energy-driven shock, with inflation pressures rising in the near term even as growth expectations begin to soften. They explore why this tension is keeping rates range-bound... more

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer discuss the evolving technical backdrop for agency MBS, including continued support from GSE portfolios and renewed demand from banks. They also examine how market stability has benefited from the absence of forced s... more

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer discuss the growing risk of a stagflationary macro environment as energy prices rise and the yield curve continues to flatten. They revisit their bank demand outlook and explain why changing capital rules and improve... more

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer discuss widening mortgage spreads amid rising Treasury yields and a Fed that remains firmly in wait-and-see mode. They examine the persistent U.S. housing shortage and the growing impact of mortgage rate lock-in on m... more

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer review February’s prepayment report and explain why refinancing activity is increasingly concentrated in the higher coupons of the stack as modest rate rallies begin to test refinance thresholds. They then explore th... more

Kirill Krylov flies solo today to examine the market implications of escalating geopolitical tensions along with renewed volatility and what that could mean for mortgage spreads and GSE purchase activity. He breaks down the powerful technical backdro... more

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer unpack a January housing slowdown driven more by weather and normalization than structural weakness, while highlighting a meaningful shift in buyer leverage and rising discounts off list prices. They then turn to hou... more

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Recent Guests

Tom Tzitzouris
One of the best and most practical economists
Strategas
Episode: Does Grilling an Economist Count as a Vegan's Weekend Meal Prep?

Hosts

Kirill Krylov
MBS storyteller and wine digger; a committed Coderone admirer who brings in-depth analyses of the Agency MBS market and insights into institutional investor considerations.
Steven Scheerer
Co-host of the podcast and analytical partner who provides insights into market dynamics and investment strategies pertaining to MBS.

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Talking Points

Recent interactions between the hosts and their guests.

Does Grilling an Economist Count as a Vegan's Weekend Meal Prep?
Q: What do you think the loss of the Fed's independence means for the dollar, the yield curve and for markets more broadly?
In the long run, not much, as markets have been aware that Fed's independence is influenced by politics. The current perception may cause short term volatility but reflects an ongoing awareness that the Fed has never been fully independent.

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Frequently Asked Questions About This Podcast

What is This Podcast about and what kind of topics does it cover?

A prominent source for institutional investors, this series centers around the intricate details of the Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) market, discussing relevant developments and regulatory updates impacting the sector. Key themes often include government mortgage program changes, market dynamics, investor behavior, and analysis of MBS investment strategies. The hosts provide a blend of in-depth analyses with professional insights, likely appealing to financial professionals and investors looking to navigate the complexities of the current economic landscape. Unique to this series is its focus on convexity-enhancing features and the impact of macroeconomic factors on MBS valuations, making it a valuable resource for those engaged ... more

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this podcast launched 10 months ago and published 40 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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