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Artwork for Baird Fixed Income Insights: Convexity Pulse

Baird Fixed Income Insights: Convexity Pulse

Kirill Krylov
Mortgage-Backed Securities
Housing Market
MBS
Mortgage Rates
Agency MBS Market
Agency MBS
Interest Rates
Freddie Mac
Home Ownership
Gses
Federal Reserve
Inflation
FICO
Gold
Fannie Mae
Senior Homeowners
Home Sales
Institutional Investors
Florida
Quantitative Tightening

Baird's Fixed Income Portfolio Strategy & Analytics Manager, Kirill A Krylov, PhD, CFA, offers our institutional investors a weekly discussion on the most recent Agency MBS market developments. From regulatory updates and changes in government mortgage programs to convexity-enhancing specified pool features, we highlight the most relevant news for MBS investor consideration. Robert W. Baird & Co. ... more

PublishesWeeklyEpisodes48Foundeda year ago
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Artwork for Baird Fixed Income Insights: Convexity Pulse

Latest Episodes

In this week’s Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer discuss why technical factors continue supporting agency MBS, even as spreads approach fair value and investors become increasingly selective. They examine how intergenerational wealth... more

Every generation believes it is navigating unprecedented uncertainty. This week, Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer explore what that uncertainty means for mortgage investors today. The discussion covers a surge in bond fund inflows, renewed strength ... more

In this week’s Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer discuss why volatility, rather than the outright direction of rates, may remain the most important variable for agency MBS investors as markets navigate a resilient labor market, geopo... more

In this week’s Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer discuss why agency MBS fundamentals remain more constructive than recent volatility would suggest, despite geopolitical uncertainty and seasonal supply pressures. They examine the grow... more

In this week’s Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer finally reunite for the podcast’s long-delayed “50th” episode and discuss a mortgage market caught between elevated volatility and still-powerful carry dynamics. They examine how stron... more

In this week’s Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov discusses how the mortgage market is transitioning from a volatility-driven environment toward one increasingly supported by carry, stable demand, and improving higher-coupon prepayment behavior. He exami... more

Kirill Krylov discusses how a more stable but directionless rate environment is shifting MBS returns away from volatility-driven spread tightening and toward carry and demand support. He examines the evolving role of GSE buying, highlighting a transi... more

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer discuss a more cautious near-term outlook for MBS as valuations remain tight and supply is set to increase against a backdrop of uneven demand. They explore how GSE buying behavior is evolving from a constant bid to ... more

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Recent Guests

Tom Tzitzouris
One of the best and most practical economists
Strategas
Episode: Does Grilling an Economist Count as a Vegan's Weekend Meal Prep?

Host

Kirill Krylov
MBS portfolio strategist and analyst at a major financial firm; deep focus on Agency MBS, convexity, and market structure. Frequently discusses regulatory updates, GSE programs, custom pools, and liquidity dynamics.

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Talking Points

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Does Grilling an Economist Count as a Vegan's Weekend Meal Prep?
Q: What do you think the loss of the Fed's independence means for the dollar, the yield curve and for markets more broadly?
In the long run, not much, as markets have been aware that Fed's independence is influenced by politics. The current perception may cause short term volatility but reflects an ongoing awareness that the Fed has never been fully independent.

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Frequently Asked Questions About This Podcast

What is This Podcast about and what kind of topics does it cover?

A weekly briefing on the Agency MBS landscape, with a focus on regulatory updates, government mortgage programs, convexity-enhancing features, and the evolving role of GSEs in mortgage markets. Episodes emphasize how policy shifts, trades in custom pools, and new platform tools affect loan selection, pricing, liquidity, and investor behavior. Noteworthy is the emphasis on practical implications for institutional investors and money managers—such as how GSE buying programs, LLDC-like innovations, and supply constraints shape risk, spreads, and opportunities in MBS. The show tends to blend technical market analysis with real-world scenarios (e.g., prepayment dynamics among seniors, construct-capable lending, and the balance between policy aim... more

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1. FICC Focus
2. At Any Rate
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this podcast launched a year ago and published 48 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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