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复利国

漏木

复利国 · 长期主义者的聚集地 我们只研究一件事: 那些经得起时间检验的投资智慧。 从沃伦.巴菲特、查理.芒格、霍华德.马克思和李录 拆解他们如何思考投资、财富、风险、时间,以及人生。 我们把跨越半个世纪的投资思想,连接成一条完整的逻辑链。 从伯克希尔股东信,股东大会问答、深度演讲、到橡树资本备忘录,还原决策背后的长期框架。

PublishesTwice monthlyEpisodes4Founded2 months ago
Language
ZH-CN
Number of ListenersCategories
BusinessInvesting

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Latest Episodes

【本期简介】

好公司很多,但没有好的掌舵人,护城河也会慢慢漏水

上一期我们聊了护城河——一家公司为什么能长期赚钱。 这一期,我们聊另一个问题:城堡建好之后,谁来守?

一、为什么管理层是"最难估值的资产"

护城河可以量化,现金流可以预测,但管理层的品质,没有公式。

你没法在资产负债表上找到它, 却能在十年后的股价里看见它。

巴菲特评估管理层,主要关心三件事:

*

他们是否像真正的所有者一样思考?

*

他们对资本的分配,是否长期理性?

*

他们对股东说的话,是否诚... more

标题:巴菲特的护城河:如何识别“印钞机”公司?

【本期简介】

在这个满地都是“内卷”和“价格战”的商业世界,为什么有的公司即便遭遇巨大危机,依然能迅速翻盘并持续盈利?而有的公司拼命研发,却始终挣扎在亏损边缘?

答案就在巴菲特最推崇的词里——护城河(Moat)。

很多人误以为“好产品”就是护城河,或者“优秀的CEO”就是护城河。但在巴菲特眼中,真正的护城河是一道让竞争对手感到绝望的结构性优势。本期节目,我们将深入拆解:为什么即便损失了1.5亿美金,巴菲特依然认为这门生意是一台“印钞机”? more

内容来自我系统整理的第一手价值投资知识库——跨越近50年、横跨书信、年报、演讲、问答多种形式,涵盖巴菲特致股东信、伯克希尔年报、股东大会问答,以及芒格、霍华德·马克斯、李录的核心著作。不是二手解读,是原始材料的直接提炼。

标题: 守住能力圈,比扩大圈子更重要

【本期简介】

在一个被AI、大模型、算力、风口不断轰炸的时代,我们很容易产生一种焦虑:

* 如果我不懂这些,会不会被时代抛弃?

* 如果我现在不进去,会不会错过一生一次的机会?

但回到历史,你会发现,这种情绪并不新鲜。在19... more

如果你想买一家公司的股票,该怎么分析?

这期节目,我用巴菲特的投资框架,从可口可乐到德克斯特鞋业,一步步拆解怎么判断一家公司值不值得买入。

* 内容来自我系统整理的第一手价值投资知识库——跨越近50年、横跨书信、年报、演讲、问答多种形式,涵盖巴菲特致股东信、伯克希尔年报、股东大会问答,以及芒格、霍华德·马克斯、李录的核心著作。不是二手解读,是原始材料的直接提炼。

本期结构

为什么短期股价是情绪,长期股价才是价值

第一部分: 用可口可乐建立分析公司的直觉。

第二部分: 讲清楚投资的底... more

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