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Orbital Estimate

Gene Botkin

A publication for the geopolitics of space and space accessories. orbitest.substack.com

PublishesWeeklyEpisodes5Foundeda month ago
Number of ListenersCategories
Tech NewsNewsPolitics

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Latest Episodes

International law speaks in the language of universal order, yet it operates in a world ruled by sovereign states, military force, and strategic interest. The Paper Shield argues that treaties, courts, and global institutions matter because they clar... more

Blockchain has moved beyond crypto speculation and become a serious layer of geopolitical infrastructure. The central question is no longer whether digital assets will replace the state. They will not. The real question is which states will control, ... more

Russia’s April 2026 close-proximity maneuver between COSMOS 2581 and COSMOS 2583 revealed a central danger in modern space security: the most useful counterspace weapon may be one that never fires. The satellites reportedly came within roughly three ... more

This episode of Orbital Estimate argues that the first major great-power contest beyond Earth orbit will not begin with formal lunar annexation. The Moon will likely remain legally unowned under the Outer Space Treaty, but access to it may still be s... more

China’s space program is best understood as a disciplined instrument of grand strategy, not a prestige project with rockets attached. Through Tiangong, BeiDou, expanding ISR constellations, commercial satellite networks, lunar south pole missions, an... more

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