Monetary Blog | FOMC Insight Engine

Four changes across 240 words. Every one performs a function the statement cannot name. The Fed is narrowing what it claims to know — while preserving every element of the architecture that will authorize the next cut.

The public narrative of Federal Reserve independence rests on institutional architecture — the 1951 Accord, fourteen-year terms, transparency norms, explicit inflation targets — presented as...

An analyst submits a five-link causal hypothesis tracing transmission from a Qatar LNG disruption through Japan's balance-of-payments stress into US Treasury markets and financial conditions.

Bessent proposes dismantling the post-crisis liquidity framework, calling the self-insurance mandate a fundamental mistake born of crisis trauma, blaming the LCR for entrenching discount window...

Waller dissents in favor of a rate cut and publicly articulates a framework built on four claims: 'looking through' tariff-driven inflation is traditional central bank wisdom, expectations are...

Vice Chair Bowman proposes to reform a liquidity framework the Federal Reserve spent fifty years documenting as unreformable. The archive confirms the diagnosis. The prescription has already been tested and found inert.

Business-cycle research holds that recessions originate in a small number of interest-rate-sensitive sectors. The FOMC Insight Engine tests whether the Fed tracks them — and what happens to two layers of warning inside the committee's consensus proce... more

A labor market analysis of 45.4 million job postings reveals Simpson's Paradox at work — and the same paradox has operated inside the Federal Reserve's treatment of inflation data for fifty-three years.