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Inside Prediction Markets

Prediction Market Gurus
Prediction Markets
Kalshi
NFL
Polymarket
Novig
RFQ
World Cup
The Masters
Draftkings
American Football
Nate Silver
NBA Trading
Midterm Elections
RFQ (request For Quote)
Opticodds
Election Forecasting
Manual Prediction Market Trading
Artificial Intelligence
NBA Modeling
Political Prediction Markets

Every week, join two of the world's sharpest bettors and minds, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, as they discuss everything about betting and prediction markets. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 📈 Market Deep Dives 🎙️ Expert Guests 🧠 Strategy Analysis This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The view... more

PublishesWeeklyEpisodes37Founded9 months ago
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Artwork for Inside Prediction Markets

Latest Episodes

This week, Matt Vegh (X: @PMR_Insights), host of the Prediction Markets Report, joins us to explore why the prediction market industry is bigger than sports. We discuss the legal battles over sports contracts, the possibility of Supreme Court review ... more

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This week, Kalshi raises $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation, Polymarket and Binance navigate recent hacks and we go behind the scenes with two members of our trading team. We talk midterms, election odds and what the market might be missing with t... more

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This week, Chris and Henry welcome trader Clay Alter to discuss his move from sportsbooks to live trading on Kalshi and Polymarket US. Clay breaks down his hands-on approach to market making, how he managed first-touchdown orders between plays and wh... more

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This week, Polymarket’s CEO allegedly used company funds to fly private, Matt Downs’ created a game lines analysis on X and we observe flat PM volume week over week. Then, we get into trading politics on prediction markets. We talk all things Nate Si... more

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Recent Guests

Matt Vegh
Host of the Prediction Markets Report podcast and law school graduate
Prediction Markets Report
Episode: Prediction Markets’ Fight for Legitimacy: Winning Over Regulators and the Public
Michael Hoffman
Head of Engineering at Novig with experience in electronic trading systems
Novig
Episode: Perspectives From Our Trading Team: Building Tech & Trading Politics
Clay Alter
Prediction market trader with a background in sportsbook betting
Episode: Inside a Fully Manual Prediction Market Strategy: Where Human Judgment Finds an Edge
Rob Spudger
NFL expert; CEO, Circles Off Channel; Hammer Daily host
Circles Off Channel / Hammer Daily
Episode: Week 1 NFL Picks, Power Rankings & Why This Pro Bettor Is All-In on the L.A. Rams
Alex Dubin
Attorney in the gaming/prediction markets space
Dubin Law
Episode: Prediction Markets Face Their Biggest Legal Test Yet: Explained By Top Sports Betting Attorney
Camden Mariotti
Avid poker player and predictor markets participant discussed on the show
Episode: From Poker To Prediction Markets: How To Build A Profitable Operation
Lawrence Elvestine
Trading professional with background in sports betting; joined the podcast as a guest
PrizePicks/MAG
Episode: Building a Winning Prediction Market Trading Team
Joe Leonard
Sports trader with engineering/data science background
MAG/University of Virginia
Episode: Building a Winning Prediction Market Trading Team
Andrew Courtney
Longtime SIG trader at Susquehanna International Group (SIG)
SIG / Susquehanna International Group
Episode: Inside the Mind of a 15-Year SIG Trader & The Future of Prediction Markets

Hosts

Henry Kerins
Prediction-market trader and sports bettor
Chris Dierkes
Prediction-market trader and sports bettor

Chart Rankings

How this podcast ranks in the Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube charts.

Apple Podcasts
#210
Sweden/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#243
Ireland/Business/Investing

Talking Points

Recent interactions between the hosts and their guests.

Prediction Markets’ Fight for Legitimacy: Winning Over Regulators and the Public
Q: What does it take from prediction markets at large to win over legal and regulatory institutions? What's it going to take to win over the public?
Vegh says legal acceptance and public trust are intertwined. Settling sports-contract disputes could reduce uncertainty, while non-sports contracts and institutional use cases may continue regardless of the sports outcome.
Prediction Markets’ Fight for Legitimacy: Winning Over Regulators and the Public
Q: When Prediction Markets are making their case, be it to lawmakers or the Supreme Court or whoever, does that information value, that spectator information value of the markets actually matter?
Vegh says the information value helps the public narrative by making markets useful to people who only observe them, although public perceptions of gambling and marketing also shape acceptance.
Perspectives From Our Trading Team: Building Tech & Trading Politics
Q: Why stay out of the trading logic?
Michael says pricing requires focused attention, while his strengths are building high-throughput distributed systems, so he sees the roles as complementary.
Perspectives From Our Trading Team: Building Tech & Trading Politics
Q: If you had to go make a trade today, would you be buying up Democrats at current prices?
Gavin says he would look for underpriced Democratic underdogs, rather than assume that every prominent candidate is good value.
Inside a Fully Manual Prediction Market Strategy: Where Human Judgment Finds an Edge
Q: Do you try to work on any models to give you a baseline assumption?
Alter says he uses an intuitive baseline developed through experience, then adjusts for the teams and situation. He does not need a highly precise model while his strategy remains profitable.

Audience Metrics

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Frequently Asked Questions About Inside Prediction Markets

What is Inside Prediction Markets about and what kind of topics does it cover?

Weekly conversations about sports betting and prediction markets, hosted by Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, bettors and prediction-market traders affiliated with Novig. The hosts combine market and industry analysis with interviews featuring traders, market makers, sports handicappers, attorneys and technology leaders. Discussions cover trading strategies, pricing, liquidity, automation, sports and election markets, platform competition, and the legal and regulatory questions shaping the sector.

The format moves between host-led analysis and practical conversations with people working in or around the markets. Guests explain how they build trading operations, assess risk, use models or human judgment, and respond to changing market structu... more

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Which podcasts are similar to Inside Prediction Markets?

These podcasts share a similar audience with Inside Prediction Markets:

1. The Risk Takers Podcast
2. Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts
3. Bet The Process
4. Gambling With an Edge
5. Prediction Market Movers

How many episodes of Inside Prediction Markets are there?

Inside Prediction Markets launched 9 months ago and published 37 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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What guests have appeared on Inside Prediction Markets?

Recent guests on Inside Prediction Markets include:

1. Matt Vegh
2. Michael Hoffman
3. Clay Alter
4. Rob Spudger
5. Alex Dubin
6. Camden Mariotti
7. Lawrence Elvestine
8. Joe Leonard

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