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Inside Prediction Markets

Prediction Market Gurus
Prediction Markets
Kalshi
NFL
Novig
Polymarket
RFQ
World Cup
The Masters
Draftkings
American Football
Nate Silver
NBA Trading
Opticodds
RFQ (request For Quote)
Election Forecasting
Artificial Intelligence
NBA Modeling
Political Prediction Markets
Iran
Augusta National Golf Club

Every week, join two of the world's sharpest bettors and minds, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, as they discuss everything about betting and prediction markets. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 📈 Market Deep Dives 🎙️ Expert Guests 🧠 Strategy Analysis This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The view... more

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Artwork for Inside Prediction Markets

Latest Episodes

This week, Polymarket’s CEO allegedly used company funds to fly private, Matt Downs’ created a game lines analysis on X and we observe flat PM volume week over week. Then, we get into trading politics on prediction markets. We talk all things Nate Si... more

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This week, Seth, aka @Soarin22 on X, joins us to share how he went from an actuary to a full-time NBA trader and built a one-man trading operation with roughly $2 million in profits on Kalshi. We unpack his shift from top-down betting to building his... more

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This week, we discuss the CFTC’s potential collaboration with the SEC, Novig’s climb to #1 in the App Store’s sports category and prediction markets’ growth as the NFL season unfolds. Then, we get into what bettors actually want: what makes someone c... more

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This week, @ssigsbee had his first losing month, Kalshi’s allowing margin trading and Novig hit $100 million in a single day! Then, we get into Survivor and Chris’ observations so far. We finish up with our NFL takes from the past few weeks: Deshaun ... more

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Our guest this week, @evenstevengg on X, started sports betting in 2022 with $100 on a sportsbook. Now he hasn't placed a sportsbook bet in months. We talk about why he went all-in on prediction markets: the proposed 90% gambling-loss deduction rule,... more

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Football is back! This week we discuss Pinnacle’s statement on X, FanDuel’s market making on Kalshi and where the vig gets applied differently depending on how competitive a given market is. We describe our necessities in an odds screen and the tools... more

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This week, pro sports bettor Rob Pizzola (X: @robpizzola) joins us to break down Week 1 NFL matchups. He walks us through his background, his automated closing-line-driven betting process and how prediction market liquidity is reshaping sportsbook li... more

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This week we discuss LSU reportedly using prediction markets to hedge Lane Kiffin-related bonuses, Donald Trump Jr.’s ties to the industry, the politics surrounding prediction market regulation and whether the industry could eventually become too big... more

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Recent Guests

Rob Spudger
NFL expert; CEO, Circles Off Channel; Hammer Daily host
Circles Off Channel / Hammer Daily
Episode: Week 1 NFL Picks, Power Rankings & Why This Pro Bettor Is All-In on the L.A. Rams
Alex Dubin
Attorney in the gaming/prediction markets space
Dubin Law
Episode: Prediction Markets Face Their Biggest Legal Test Yet: Explained By Top Sports Betting Attorney
Camden Mariotti
Avid poker player and predictor markets participant discussed on the show
Episode: From Poker To Prediction Markets: How To Build A Profitable Operation
Lawrence Elvestine
Trading professional with background in sports betting; joined the podcast as a guest
PrizePicks/MAG
Episode: Building a Winning Prediction Market Trading Team
Joe Leonard
Sports trader with engineering/data science background
MAG/University of Virginia
Episode: Building a Winning Prediction Market Trading Team
Andrew Courtney
Longtime SIG trader at Susquehanna International Group (SIG)
SIG / Susquehanna International Group
Episode: Inside the Mind of a 15-Year SIG Trader & The Future of Prediction Markets
Matt Restivo
CEO of OpticOdds, guest in the hot seat
OpticOdds
Episode: Optic Odds CEO on Powering the Industry + World Cup Volume Shattering Records
Josh Spaceman
RFQ market-maker in OpticOdds hot seat, winner of Grand Isimo (RFQ contest)
OpticOdds / Kalshi related activity
Episode: This NYC Bar Is Using Prediction Markets to Hedge Your Tab If the Knicks Win
Harry Crane
Guest, longtime predictor of markets and CFTC Innovation Committee member
CFTC Innovation Committee
Episode: Ohio Is Trying to Kill Sports Betting + Harry Crane on the Fascinating Kelly Criterion Debate

Hosts

Henry Kerins
Host of Inside Prediction Markets with affiliations across Novig and associated groups; frequent co-host of episodes
Chris Dierkes
Co-host with deep involvement in prediction markets and market-making discussions, often leading conversations with guests

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Talking Points

Recent interactions between the hosts and their guests.

Finding Success in NBA Trading: From Top-Down to Modeling
Q: How do you handle balancing the need for queue position and not getting picked off on injury news?
Seth avoids posting too early when injury reports are incomplete, skips games with too many uncertain players, and uses automated feeds to help protect orders. He says injury-related adverse selection cannot be eliminated entirely.
Finding Success in NBA Trading: From Top-Down to Modeling
Q: Where do you find yourself putting most of your time and effort and energy these days into trying to get better?
Seth focuses on improving trading logic and automating manual decisions. His system is largely automated, and he regularly adds mechanisms that can improve it and save time.
Week 1 NFL Picks, Power Rankings & Why This Pro Bettor Is All-In on the L.A. Rams
Q: If you could start a team from scratch for the next five years, which QB would you take from the options given?
Patrick Mahomes is often prioritized, but Drake Maye offers a longer contract horizon and cost efficiency, which could yield a stronger five-year window; the trade-off includes age and durability considerations.
Prediction Markets Face Their Biggest Legal Test Yet: Explained By Top Sports Betting Attorney
Q: Could the issue ultimately go to the Supreme Court, and if so, when might that happen?
Yes, the episode anticipates the case reaching the Supreme Court if certiorari is granted, with a possible filing timeline around cert deadlines and potential decisions taking more than a year, depending on docket and justices' interest.
Prediction Markets Face Their Biggest Legal Test Yet: Explained By Top Sports Betting Attorney
Q: What does the Ninth Circuit ruling mean for Kalshi and similar platforms?
It signals a more expansive, contextual interpretation of gambling and regulatory preemption, suggesting that states may have greater leeway to regulate or restrict these contracts, potentially guiding future Supreme Court review.

Audience Metrics

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Frequently Asked Questions About Inside Prediction Markets

What is Inside Prediction Markets about and what kind of topics does it cover?

The show centers on prediction markets, market making, liquidity dynamics, and the evolving ecosystem of betting and PM platforms. Across episodes, hosts explore practical trading strategies, team-building, regulatory developments, and cutting-edge data and AI tools shaping edge discovery and decision-making. Guests range from operators and traders to founders and regulators, offering hands-on insights into building, running, and governing PM businesses, as well as the competitive landscape among major venues and data providers. The format often blends actionable advice for practitioners with high‑level analysis of market design, settlement, and policy questions, making it a likely fit for listeners who want to understand how prediction mar... more

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Which podcasts are similar to Inside Prediction Markets?

These podcasts share a similar audience with Inside Prediction Markets:

1. The Risk Takers Podcast
2. Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts
3. Bet The Process
4. Prediction Market Movers
5. Gambling With an Edge

How many episodes of Inside Prediction Markets are there?

Inside Prediction Markets launched 8 months ago and published 34 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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What guests have appeared on Inside Prediction Markets?

Recent guests on Inside Prediction Markets include:

1. Rob Spudger
2. Alex Dubin
3. Camden Mariotti
4. Lawrence Elvestine
5. Joe Leonard
6. Andrew Courtney
7. Matt Restivo
8. Josh Spaceman

To view more recent guests and their details, simply upgrade your Rephonic account. You'll also get access to a typical guest profile to help you decide if the show is worth pitching.

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