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Inside Prediction Markets

Prediction Market Gurus
Prediction Markets
Kalshi
Novig
Polymarket
The Masters
RFQ
RFQ (request For Quote)
Cal-Sheet (prediction Market Platform)
Iran
Draftkings
Augusta National Golf Club
Adverse Selection
Live Odds
NFL
Kelly Criterion
Dalshi
Fanduel
Regulation
Creator Ids
Datagolf

Every week, join two of the world's sharpest bettors and minds, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, as they discuss everything about betting and prediction markets. πŸ“… New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays πŸ“ˆ Market Deep Dives πŸŽ™οΈ Expert Guests 🧠 Strategy Analysis This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The view... more

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Artwork for Inside Prediction Markets

Latest Episodes

A New York City bar is covering every customer's tab if the Knicks win game one β€” and they're hedging the entire risk on a prediction market. Chris and Henry break down why this is one of the smartest real-world use cases for prediction markets yet a... more

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Kyle Kuzma β€” yes, the NBA player β€” became an unlikely prediction market hero this week by clapping back at the DraftKings co-founder's Twitter tirade. Then: the Ninth Circuit signals it's going to rule against prediction markets on sports contracts, ... more

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Matt Kalish β€” co-founder of DraftKings β€” had a very public meltdown on Twitter this week about prediction markets, and Chris and Henry break down every angle. Sporttrade suspends OSB operations and Polymarket and Nasdaq announce perpetual contracts o... more

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What actually is market making? If you've ever asked yourself that question, this is the episode for you.FanDuel and DraftKings just announced they're market making on prediction markets. Then Kalshi dropped numbers showing over 30% of their volume i... more

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Polymarket had a rough week β€” and Chris and Henry break down both stories. First: ghost orders Then: their CMO was caught on a live stream nearly whispering something to a popular streamer before realizing he was on camera β€” a clip that went viral fo... more

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A U.S. soldier was just prosecuted by the DOJ for betting $400,000 on a prediction market using classified military intelligence about the Maduro situation β€” and Chris and Henry break down why this is actually a landmark moment for the space. It wasn... more

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Chris and Henry pull back the curtain on what it actually takes to get hired at a prediction market company. They start with their own stories β€” how Chris reached out cold and created his own role, how Henry cold-emailed a cover letter and got hired ... more

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Ohio just introduced a bill that would effectively kill online sports betting in the state. Chris and Henry break down why it's unlikely to pass but why it matters, plus a tease of what looks like perpetual contracts coming to a major prediction mark... more

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Recent Guests

Harry Crane
Guest, longtime predictor of markets and CFTC Innovation Committee member
CFTC Innovation Committee
Episode: Ohio Is Trying to Kill Sports Betting + Harry Crane on the Fascinating Kelly Criterion Debate
John Schilling
GoldenPants13, premier prediction market market maker and Risk Takers show host
Risk Takers / Kalshi
Episode: How To Bet The Masters + Novig Is Giving Away 500K
Jacob Fortinsky
CEO, Novig
Novig
Episode: Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky on Why Prediction Markets Will Win
Dustin Gouker
Journalist with expertise in sports betting and prediction markets
Journalist, newsletter writer
Episode: Are Prediction Markets Actually Worth Their Jaw-Dropping $20B Valuation?
Sports Projections
Host of the Risk Takers podcast with GP
Sports betting / analytics
Episode: Do Death Markets Actually Exist? Iran’s Fall Exposes a $54M Betting Scandal

Hosts

Henry Kerins
Host of Inside Prediction Markets; appears on episodes discussing market making, PM terminology, and platform dynamics.
Chris Dierkes
Co-host; covers market structure, trading mechanics, and regulatory commentary with hosts.

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Talking Points

Recent interactions between the hosts and their guests.

Matt Kalish Crashes Out + 4casters Zach on the Future of Prediction Markets
Q: Zach, welcome to the OpticOdds hot seat. What is the most expensive mistake you've made?
Zach describes mispricing and mishandling risk early on, including trying to market-make without proper controls and relying on legacy processes that led to adverse outcomes; emphasizes learning to build robust liquidity tools and separating trading from risk ownership.
Do Death Markets Actually Exist? Iran’s Fall Exposes a $54M Betting Scandal
Q: What was your first passion? What started the fire for you?
The guest describes how actuarial training and a shift from DFS to prize-picks and pick'em games sparked a data-driven interest in betting markets, with COVID-19 accelerating focus on sports analytics and market opportunities beyond traditional DFS.
The NFL Just Put Prediction Markets on Notice: A Potential Victory For All?
Q: Where do you see the biggest opportunities in the next 12 months for a small operator?
Prediction markets are seen as the near-term growth lever for individual operators, with RFQs expanding beyond personal accounts and potential white-label or dashboard services as scalable paths, while keeping an eye on regulatory risk and liquidity needs.
The NFL Just Put Prediction Markets on Notice: A Potential Victory For All?
Q: What's the biggest challenge in building a RFQ-focused prediction market business?
The guests discuss the dual challenges of reliable data feeds (odds scraping) and maintaining fair pricing in the face of sharp quoters, along with legal and compliance considerations when taking outside money as custodians, and the need to structure partnerships carefully.
The NFL Just Put Prediction Markets on Notice: A Potential Victory For All?
Q: What gave you the confidence to quit your job and go pro in this space?
Jake explains that a combination of a growing bankroll from PPH, the ability to manage risk, and a favorable window where betting opportunities aligned with a feasible path in prediction markets made leaving accounting a reasonable decision, especially when his betting income began to outpace his job duties.

Audience Metrics

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Frequently Asked Questions About Inside Prediction Markets

What is Inside Prediction Markets about and what kind of topics does it cover?

A deep-dively show centered on prediction markets, market design, and betting dynamics, with emphasis on liquidity, pricing, and regulatory considerations. Episodes frequently feature hands-on discussions about RFQ trading, market making, edge detection, and real-world case studies from sports, politics, and entertainment markets. Regular guests come from major PM platforms, trading desks, and industry media, offering practical insights into market structure, product design, and the evolving regulatory landscape. The format blends actionable trading heuristics with strategic industry commentary, making it a strong fit for listeners who want to understand how Prediction Markets operate in practice and how new products and policies impact liq... more

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Which podcasts are similar to Inside Prediction Markets?

These podcasts share a similar audience with Inside Prediction Markets:

1. Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts
2. Bet The Process
3. The Risk Takers Podcast
4. Risk of Ruin
5. Predictive Programming

How many episodes of Inside Prediction Markets are there?

Inside Prediction Markets launched 4 months ago and published 16 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

How do I contact Inside Prediction Markets?

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What guests have appeared on Inside Prediction Markets?

Recent guests on Inside Prediction Markets include:

1. Harry Crane
2. John Schilling
3. Jacob Fortinsky
4. Dustin Gouker
5. Sports Projections

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