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Inside Prediction Markets

Prediction Market Gurus
Prediction Markets
Kalshi
Novig
Polymarket
World Cup
The Masters
RFQ
RFQ (request For Quote)
Opticodds
Artificial Intelligence
Cal-Sheet (prediction Market Platform)
Iran
Draftkings
Augusta National Golf Club
Adverse Selection
Live Odds
NFL
Kelly Criterion
Claude
Dalshi

Every week, join two of the world's sharpest bettors and minds, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, as they discuss everything about betting and prediction markets. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 📈 Market Deep Dives 🎙️ Expert Guests 🧠 Strategy Analysis This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The view... more

PublishesWeeklyEpisodes23Founded6 months ago
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Latest Episodes

Underdog just sold to IG group for $1.3 billion and the state of New York is suing Kalshi for $36 billion. This week we also discuss BetBash, the annual sports gambling networking conference in Vegas. We talk about what to expect, advice if you’re a ... more

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Netflix released a new documentary about prediction markets and is facing some backlash. Kalshi is threatening legal action towards Netflix based on some false information revealed in the trailer for the documentary. Also, ProphetX raised $35 million... more

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Kalshi is rolling out compute forward curves and really expanding after World Cup markets have brought an insane wave of volume into prediction markets this summer. Also, Underdog Fantasy is officially entering the space with its own prediction marke... more

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From Kalshi's new Pro trading terminal to the Bryce Harper FanDuel controversy, Henry and Chris discuss all the biggest stories this week. Importantly, they dive into how AI is completely changing the way prediction market traders work and how the ra... more

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Recent Guests

Lawrence Elvestine
Trading professional with background in sports betting; joined the podcast as a guest
PrizePicks/MAG
Episode: Building a Winning Prediction Market Trading Team
Joe Leonard
Sports trader with engineering/data science background
MAG/University of Virginia
Episode: Building a Winning Prediction Market Trading Team
Andrew Courtney
Longtime SIG trader at Susquehanna International Group (SIG)
SIG / Susquehanna International Group
Episode: Inside the Mind of a 15-Year SIG Trader & The Future of Prediction Markets
Matt Restivo
CEO of OpticOdds, guest in the hot seat
OpticOdds
Episode: Optic Odds CEO on Powering the Industry + World Cup Volume Shattering Records
Josh Spaceman
RFQ market-maker in OpticOdds hot seat, winner of Grand Isimo (RFQ contest)
OpticOdds / Kalshi related activity
Episode: This NYC Bar Is Using Prediction Markets to Hedge Your Tab If the Knicks Win
Harry Crane
Guest, longtime predictor of markets and CFTC Innovation Committee member
CFTC Innovation Committee
Episode: Ohio Is Trying to Kill Sports Betting + Harry Crane on the Fascinating Kelly Criterion Debate
John Schilling
GoldenPants13, premier prediction market market maker and Risk Takers show host
Risk Takers / Kalshi
Episode: How To Bet The Masters + Novig Is Giving Away 500K
Jacob Fortinsky
CEO, Novig
Novig
Episode: Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky on Why Prediction Markets Will Win
Dustin Gouker
Journalist with expertise in sports betting and prediction markets
Journalist, newsletter writer
Episode: Are Prediction Markets Actually Worth Their Jaw-Dropping $20B Valuation?

Hosts

Henry Kerins
Host of Inside Prediction Markets; appears on episodes discussing market making, PM terminology, and platform dynamics.
Chris Dierkes
Co-host; covers market structure, trading mechanics, and regulatory commentary with hosts.

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Talking Points

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Inside the Mind of a 15-Year SIG Trader & The Future of Prediction Markets
Q: What was the biggest challenge when transitioning from SIG to predicting markets?
The guest describes shifting from a high-stakes, fast-paced trading environment to exploring prediction markets as a way to leverage information and manage risk transfer, while also dealing with new design challenges like contract clarity and settlement.
This NYC Bar Is Using Prediction Markets to Hedge Your Tab If the Knicks Win
Q: What was your biggest learning from Survivor-style contests and applying that to market-making?
Understanding the distribution of other contestants' actions and building profiles around who they are helps anticipate moves; it's about reading people as much as reading numbers and adjusting liquidity strategically.
This NYC Bar Is Using Prediction Markets to Hedge Your Tab If the Knicks Win
Q: Josh, how do you balance the push to quote for the market versus relying on your own model-driven views?
We emphasize the market's signal but still rely on our own models; we often price for the market while keeping a guardrail and using RFQs to test ideas without overstretching our resources.
Matt Kalish Crashes Out + 4casters Zach on the Future of Prediction Markets
Q: Zach, welcome to the OpticOdds hot seat. What is the most expensive mistake you've made?
Zach describes mispricing and mishandling risk early on, including trying to market-make without proper controls and relying on legacy processes that led to adverse outcomes; emphasizes learning to build robust liquidity tools and separating trading from risk ownership.
Do Death Markets Actually Exist? Iran’s Fall Exposes a $54M Betting Scandal
Q: What was your first passion? What started the fire for you?
The guest describes how actuarial training and a shift from DFS to prize-picks and pick'em games sparked a data-driven interest in betting markets, with COVID-19 accelerating focus on sports analytics and market opportunities beyond traditional DFS.

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Frequently Asked Questions About Inside Prediction Markets

What is Inside Prediction Markets about and what kind of topics does it cover?

A deep-dively show centered on prediction markets, market design, and betting dynamics, with emphasis on liquidity, pricing, and regulatory considerations. Episodes frequently feature hands-on discussions about RFQ trading, market making, edge detection, and real-world case studies from sports, politics, and entertainment markets. Regular guests come from major PM platforms, trading desks, and industry media, offering practical insights into market structure, product design, and the evolving regulatory landscape. The format blends actionable trading heuristics with strategic industry commentary, making it a strong fit for listeners who want to understand how Prediction Markets operate in practice and how new products and policies impact liq... more

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Which podcasts are similar to Inside Prediction Markets?

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1. Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts
2. Risk of Ruin
3. Bet The Process
4. The Risk Takers Podcast
5. Gambling With an Edge

How many episodes of Inside Prediction Markets are there?

Inside Prediction Markets launched 6 months ago and published 23 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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What guests have appeared on Inside Prediction Markets?

Recent guests on Inside Prediction Markets include:

1. Lawrence Elvestine
2. Joe Leonard
3. Andrew Courtney
4. Matt Restivo
5. Josh Spaceman
6. Harry Crane
7. John Schilling
8. Jacob Fortinsky

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