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拉丁牧马人|Geopolitical Structures

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《拉丁牧马人》是一档从拉丁美洲出发,观察全球权力结构变化的播客。 拉丁牧马人立于高原与草原之间,远离权力殿堂,紧握时代的缰绳,以结构性竞争视角解析大国博弈。 关注中美竞争、资源政治、金融秩序与全球南方的崛起,解析这些变化如何影响拉美,以及拉美如何在大国博弈中保持战略自主。 在全球权力重组时代,位置决定视角,拉美正处在新的世界转折点上。 Geopolitical Structures is a Chinese-language podcast on great-power competition and the transformation of global order. We focus on how rules are rewritten, how structures constrain choices, and how states, businesses, and individ... more

PublishesDailyEpisodes189Founded6 months ago
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本期《拉丁牧马人》聚焦智利右翼总统卡斯特执政百日的关键临界点。过去一周,6月21日至27日 智利的政治风险指数(PRI)与政策推进强度(PII)双双高企。政府正以“休克疗法”般的姿态,强推激进减税、教育择校改革与边境重型物理封锁。然而,这种高强度的政策冲刺正迎面撞上坚硬的体制阻力:宪法法院对强硬安全法案划定了严厉的法治边界,巨型税改面临巨额赤字的诘问,而执政联盟内部极右翼与传统右翼这“两个灵魂”的深层路线矛盾更是彻底撕裂公开化。

本期节目带您拨开迷雾,深度透视智利当前“高产出与... more

节目内容简介

距离美国仅90英里的古巴,近期推出了允许外资银行与私人资本进入等激进改革,标志着其长达67年的共产主义实验正面临生死存亡的考验。本期节目将带您拨开加勒比海的浪漫迷雾,深度剖析古巴经济系统性崩溃的根源。我们将揭开被神话的古巴医疗与教育体系的真实面貌,探讨美国极限施压背后的西半球地缘博弈。更重要的是,透过古巴从“革命经济”向“生存经济”的被迫转型,我们将揭示一个残酷的现实:在21世纪,决定国家命运的已不再是意识形态标签,而是融入全球网络、发展生产力的国家能力。

声明:

本期播客内... more

节目内容简介

2025年美国《国家安全战略》确立了“门罗主义特朗普推论”,标志着中企出海的“商业中立”时代彻底终结。拉美正变为排他性禁区,非洲成为关键矿产的决战战场。

本期节目深度剖析美国“安全—执行范式”及资产“安全化”逻辑,揭示港口、电网等出海项目面临的强制剥离风险。面对地缘政治绞杀,出海企业该如何通过计算“风险溢价”、构建“本地化护城河”及“嵌入式合作”在惊涛骇浪中求生?

为您揭开全球南方大洗牌下的出海生存底牌。

声明:

本期播客内容所涉新闻事件来自官方媒体和网络新闻

新书推荐... more

节目内容简介

本期节目我们将挑战一个固有的国际常识:美国真的是印太地区“反华联盟”的唯一推手吗?透过近年来亚洲的地缘剧变,我们发现中国在展现大国力量的同时,无意间触发了国际政治中最古老的“平衡机制”。

从日本告别和平主义、走向重新武装的反转,到印太安全架构从零散的“轮辐”演变为坚韧的“蜘蛛网”,周边国家的生存恐惧正在取代华盛顿的指令,成为重塑亚洲防卫格局的核心驱动力。我们真的进入“新冷战”了吗?在经济融合与安全防范高度并存的“冷和平”时代,大国博弈的真正法则究竟是什么?

按下播放键,和我... more

节目内容简介

过去两三年,许多人仍在等待楼市“触底反弹”,但宏观数据冷酷地宣告:一个持续二十多年的“地产时代”正在结构性落幕。本期节目将带您跳出短期焦虑,用冷静的产业视角拆解中国经济的动能转换。当土地财政褪色,天量信贷去哪了?我们将深度剖析资金从“砖头”向“硅片”的历史性迁徙,解析地方政府如何化身“耐心资本”,并探讨智能制造与“新三样”如何在欧美的重重壁垒中硬核突围。这不仅是一场宏观阵痛,更是中国迈向科技强国的伟大再出发。

声明

本期播客内容所涉新闻事件来自官方媒体和网络新闻

新书推荐 more

节目内容简介

短短十年间,英国将接连迎来第七位首相,唐宁街10号为何沦为政治“消耗品”的走马灯?

本期节目透过高频换帅的表象,深入剖析拖垮英国的系统性危机。我们将探讨自2008年以来的“生产率陷阱”如何导致经济长久停滞,进而引发荒谬的基建瘫痪、地方政府破产潮与NHS医疗系统危机。当国家失去创造繁荣的能力,政治便沦为残酷的“零和博弈”。脱欧与民粹崛起只是抗议的病症,真正的病灶在于代表性断裂的僵化体制与政策短期主义。

换首相绝非解药,英国要如何打破这场关乎民主制度存亡的死局?

欢迎收听本期硬... more

节目内容简介

一份看似普通的“服务支持名单”,为何宣告了开放互联网时代的终结?

本期节目深入解析AI 巨头Anthropic 在 2026 年划下的数字边界。我们发现,AI正从商业工具蜕变为类似核能的战略资源,其准入逻辑已从单纯的“开门做生意”转向严苛的“所有权审查”与地缘政治筛选。

我们将探讨:为何美国对AI 的管制已从硬件芯片上升至模型本身?全球是否正在分裂成互不兼容的并行生态?这不仅是技术的博弈,更是由“人工智能能力”定义的新世界秩序。

欢迎收听,拆解名单背后的大国雄心与数字主权之... more

节目内容简介

本期《拉丁牧马人》聚焦智利近期显著上行的政治风险。过去一周,2026年6月14日到6月20日,标榜“终结混乱”的卡斯特政府面临了一场严酷的执政压力测试。

我们将为您深度剖析本周引爆智利政坛的三大核心危机:史无前例的CAE学贷账户冻结,如何再次点燃社会底层的街头怒火?64名海地未成年移民离奇失踪,为何惊动国家最高权力机关进行极限公关?此外,在国际铜价高企的背景下,智利央行却无情下调了经济增长预期,这又是为何?

当高压的“强人政治”撞上智利传统的“制度高墙”,带您一起看透智利宏观... more

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