Rephonic
Artwork for The Supercycle
Prediction Markets
Polymarket
Insider Trading
Calshe
Metaculus
Regulation/policy
Futarchy
Regulation
Manifold Markets
CFTC
Open Source
Forecasting
5CC Capital
Kalshi
Long-Termism
AI Safety
Institutional Adoption
Artificial Intelligence
Futarky
Real Money Markets

The future of prediction market media. supercycle.blog

PublishesWeeklyEpisodes16Founded4 months ago
Number of ListenersCategories
InvestingBusinessNewsPolitics

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Artwork for The Supercycle

Latest Episodes

Featuring Bentham’s Bulldog (a.k.a. Matthew Adelstein).

While mostly not about prediction markets, I still think this was a super interesting discussion that many Supercycle readers will enjoy. A special focus on alternative forms of governance.

T... more

Featuring Clément Lesage.

We tried a new podcast layout, let us know what you think in the comments!

Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

Cool live mention market quoting at the beginning, a bit off the rails at the end.

Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

It was very cool to be able to interview Robin Hanson at Manifest. If you’re into alternative futarchy concepts and market mechanisms, this interview is for you.

Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

Featuring Trevor Gillan.

One of our most interesting conversations. Trevor has a really unique idea of a futures exchange for superforecaster consensus on a certain disputed truth, which sounds quite vague but you’ll learn more after you take a list... more

Featuring Quroe (a repeat guest), Tumbles, and Chris Gerlacher.

I barely figured out the equipment in the Lighthaven podcast room, but nevertheless this was a lot of fun to record! You’ll learn about what goes down at one of the most esoteric confer... more

Featuring Mick Bransfield.

We discuss how the CFTC is handling lawsuits against states challenging their authority to regulate derivatives exchanges and how a changing CFTC could impact the industry in the future. How hard is it to put the genie bac... more

I was honored to speak at this Elastics event at CV Labs Zug. My talk is about 10 minutes, but you can watch Adhi Rajaprabhakaran and Noah Zingler-Sternig speak at the same event in the full recording.

Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycl... more

Key Facts

Accepts Guests
Contact Information
Podcast Host
Number of Listeners
Find out how many people listen to this podcast per episode and each month.

Recent Guests

Clément Lesage
Co-founder of Claros, a decentralized dispute resolution system for prediction and decision markets
Claros
Episode: Clément Lesage on Resolution, Arbitration, and Decision Markets
Robin Hanson
Economist and author
Episode: Robin Hanson Fireside Chat @ Manifest
Trevor Gillan
Founder/CEO of The Citizen
The Citizen
Episode: Trevor Gillan on Prediction Markets for Unresolvable Truth
Mick Bransfield
Prediction market data researcher and writer; runs a boutique consulting firm focused on market data, predictive forecasting, and regulatory analysis
Independent consultant (Mick Bransfield)
Episode: Mick Bransfield on Litigation, Legislation, and the Future of Prediction Markets in the US
Eli Goldfaden
Co-creator of supercycle.blog; author of Supercycle blog; speaker on prediction markets
Supercycle blog
Episode: Predictive Accuracy Is Not Driven by Insiders
John Philips
Founder of Predict It; executive involved in prediction markets
Predict It / Aristotle
Episode: John Aristotle Philips on Atomic Bombs, the CFTC, and the Value of Information
Harry Crane
Professor at Rutgers; experienced researcher in prediction markets
Rutgers University
Episode: Harry Crane on Insider Trading, Market Microstructure, and Futarchy
Mikhail Samin
A blogger on LessWrong, involved with the rationalist movement, and founder/leader at the Garantization Institute (center for AI safety and governance in context of the episode).
Garantization Institute
Episode: Interview with Mikhail Samin
Adhi Rajaprabhakaran
Co-founder of 5CC Capital, focused on prediction markets infrastructure and trading
5CC Capital
Episode: Interview with Adhi Rajaprabhakaran and Noah Zingler-Sternig

Host

Eli Goldfaden
Co-creator of supercycle.blog; author of Supercycle blog; speaker on prediction markets; host of the interview

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Talking Points

Recent interactions between the hosts and their guests.

Trevor Gillan on Prediction Markets for Unresolvable Truth
Q: How would a retail investor get an edge in these markets?
Retail interest exists, but a true edge would come from early truthful research that forecasters endorse; over time, those consistently finding truth should persist in price signals.
Trevor Gillan on Prediction Markets for Unresolvable Truth
Q: Do you think the CFTC is well equipped to win in their lawsuits against the states?
The speakers suggest the law is political and could shift unfavorably with enough political energy around pushing back against prediction markets, though the CFTC has some existing wins.
Trevor Gillan on Prediction Markets for Unresolvable Truth
Q: Do you think Polymarket wouldn't have brought prediction markets to public attention if it hadn't gained traction during COVID?
The guest argues Polymarket helped conditioning consumers to awareness and that CalSheep later cleaned up regulation, enabling scale; the two together could have allowed success even without Polymarket, though Polymarket's early role remains significant.
Robin Hanson Fireside Chat @ Manifest
Q: What are the main challenges when moving from crypto-focused experiments to government-scale adoption?
Key challenges include design details, risk management, governance legitimacy, and ensuring the open-proposal market remains robust and resistant to capture as scales increase; gradual experimentation helps address these concerns.
Robin Hanson Fireside Chat @ Manifest
Q: Can Futarchy realistically replace or augment representative democracy, given the problem of voters choosing suboptimal goals?
Futarchy should augment rather than replace governance: voters still elect representatives, but market mechanisms guide the long-term value choices and the implementation of policies through market-validated signals.

Audience Metrics

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Frequently Asked Questions About The Supercycle

What is The Supercycle about and what kind of topics does it cover?

Episodes consistently center on prediction markets, their accuracy, regulatory dynamics, and the evolving ecosystem of platforms, traders, and infrastructure. Conversations mix empirical research, case studies, and industry anecdotes to challenge assumptions about insider advantage, liquidity, and market design, while exploring future directions like AI-assisted forecasting, governance applications, and institutional adoption. Noteworthy elements include candid discussions with founders and researchers, a willingness to tackle controversial topics, and a practical edge for anyone evaluating or building in the prediction-market space. This show is likely to appeal to professionals in tech, finance, policy, and media who want nuanced, evidenc... more

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The Supercycle launched 4 months ago and published 16 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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What guests have appeared on The Supercycle?

Recent guests on The Supercycle include:

1. Clément Lesage
2. Robin Hanson
3. Trevor Gillan
4. Mick Bransfield
5. Eli Goldfaden
6. John Philips
7. Harry Crane
8. Mikhail Samin

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