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World at Odds

Marty

World at Odds is a podcast about probability in a polarized world. I’m Matt — a former pro poker player who spent five years making a living at the tables, and someone who’s been limited or banned by multiple tier-one sportsbooks after finding sustained edge in their markets. I’ve spent years studying incentives, pricing, and EV across sports, politics, and macro events. We break down major storie... more

PublishesTwice monthlyEpisodes11Founded6 months ago
Number of ListenersCategories
GamesLeisure

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Latest Episodes

The NFL starts in a week and this episode is NFL only. No politics.

**Update, Sept 10: Two changes to my Week 1 spreads. I didn't take Seattle -3.5 in the end. I copied Andrew's Ravens -3.5 at the Colts instead**

The main event: 3 Super Bowl baske... more

Ten episodes in, which by podcasting standards makes us middle-aged. The NFL is twelve days out, the World Cup is done, and the midterms are close enough to start piling on.

The main event: Matt thinks the Detroit Lions are the most mispriced team o... more

We're back, and it's midterms season. After a long summer hiatus (Matt got his tonsils out at an age where you really shouldn't, Andrew watched wildebeest get eaten in Tanzania), we return to Matt's favorite thing to bet on: the 2026 midterm election... more

Andrew's up 150% on the year — but sitting in all cash with nothing to bet on. Matt walks through his best opportunities right now: Democrats to take the House at 83¢, hantavirus at 10¢, the aliens bet, and Ken Paxton's Texas Senate runoff.

Then we ... more

Matt and Andrew return to break down their Masters disasters — Andrew had the winner (McIlroy at 7¢) and sold him drunk on pasta in Italy, while Matt lost 8 units betting against him. They unpack the "equal shares under a dollar" strategy and apply i... more

Polymarket drops trading fees — we break down what it means for takers and makers. Matt reveals his "free money" strategy buying the entire Democratic 2028 field for a guaranteed ROI, and we both lock in our Masters golf picks ahead of next weekend. ... more

Still undefeated. Five for five on resolved bets — including Tim nailing the Oscars Best Picture pick from Episode 2.

This week we dig into the prediction market industry itself: Kalshi just raised a billion dollars at a $22B valuation while simulta... more

In this episode of World at Odds, Andrew and I try to build AI trading bots for Polymarket. The experiment does not go well. One bot immediately nukes a bankroll by selling 93-cent shares for one cent. Good reminder that AI still needs adult supervis... more

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Reviews

5.0 out of 5 stars from 11 ratings
  • My hidden gem podcast!!

    I don't usually write reviews, but this one deserves it. Absolute gem I stumbled upon, and I can’t stop listening!!

    A former pro poker player who been banned by major sportsbooks for being too sharp. Hoho, Matt knows what he’s saying.

    No emotional hot takes. No yelling. Just cold-headed logic breaking down major stories.

    This isn’t about winning arguments. It’s about winning in the long run. And I been learning from this and building my bets..

    If you’re tired of noise and want to actually th... more

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Diana cyt
    Hong Kong4 months ago

Chart Rankings

How this podcast ranks in the Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube charts.

Apple Podcasts
#31
Ireland/Leisure/Games
Apple Podcasts
#69
Hong Kong/Leisure/Games
Apple Podcasts
#235
Ireland/Leisure

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World at Odds launched 6 months ago and published 11 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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