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Van Hesser's 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast

KBRA
Credit Markets
Inflation
Federal Reserve
Private Credit
S&P 500
Tariffs
Economic Growth
Consumer Spending
Labor Market
Consumer Confidence
US Economy
US Exceptionalism
Oil Prices
Artificial Intelligence
Walmart
Interest Rates
Stagflation
Q3 Earnings
Commercial Real Estate
Holiday Spending

Each week, KBRA's Chief Strategist, Van Hesser will address three things that caught his attention in credit markets that are relevant to credit investors.

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Latest Episodes

This week, our 3 Things are:

* Deflation. It’s a check on the market’s most significant near-term risk.

* Credit loss cycle. Is it upon us?

* CCC signal. What the weakest credits are suggesting.

This week, our 3 Things are:

* Hyperscaler debt issuance. Funding the AI build-out goes global.

* Next-wave growth. Beyond AI and wealthy household spending, these forces will help.

* Industrial Renaissance. How real is it?

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This week, our 3 Things are:

1. Waller redirect. One of the Fed’s thought leaders says risks have changed. We’ll dig into what he’s seeing.

2. Income slowdown. The raw material that drives the economy is running into headwinds.

3. 2026 default f... more

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This week, our 3 Things are:

*

Rates’ risk. What does it mean for credit?

*

Stock vs. bond volatility. Something has to give.

*

Consumer color. We canvas bellwether transcripts for an up-to-date view.

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Recent Guests

Eric Rosenthal
KBRA Analytics researcher focused on defaults across broadly syndicated loans, high-yield, and direct lending
KBRA Analytics
Episode: Waller Redirect, Income Slowdown, and 2026 Default Forecasts.
Gordon Kerr
The European Macro Strategist at KBRA
KBRA
Episode: Big Bank Color, Labor Sensitivity, and European Update Description
Joan Feldbaum-Vidra
Senior Managing Director and Head of Sovereign Ratings Group
KBRA
Episode: Policy Guardrails, Private Credit Shock Absorber, Canada and Mexico
Scott Slayton
Chief Strategist of Capitol Creek Partners
Capitol Creek Partners
Episode: Tight Spreads, Big Bank Credit Color, and Consumer Expectations
Craig Packer
Co-President and Head of Blue Isle Capital's $85 billion direct lending credit platform
Blue Isle Capital
Episode: Economic Slack, Equity Outlook, and Consumer Lenders

Host

Van Hesser
Chief Market Strategist at KBRA; Host of Three Things in Credit; KBRA

Reviews

4.9 out of 5 stars from 40 ratings
  • Great weekly podcast

    Great weekly insights into credit trends

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Dr Chezwick
    United States5 years ago

Listeners Say

Key themes from listener reviews, highlighting what works and what could be improved about the show.

Guests and references are valued for external color and credibility.
Audience notes practical takeaways and timely market signals.
Listeners praise the show for clear, data-driven credit insights.

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Talking Points

Recent interactions between the hosts and their guests.

Waller Redirect, Income Slowdown, and 2026 Default Forecasts.
Q: What are the updated 2026 direct lending defaults expectations and what drove the change?
The forecast was raised to about 2.5% defaults with roughly $7.6 billion of volume, driven mainly by the inclusion of healthcare issuers undergoing restructurings and other specific names that increased projected defaults.
What We’re Watching, Visa/Mastercard Spending Update, and KBRA DLD Default Forecasts
Q: Which sectors are expected to generate the most defaults?
The chemicals, glass, plastics, and packaging sectors are expected to see the largest volume of liquid defaults.
What We’re Watching, Visa/Mastercard Spending Update, and KBRA DLD Default Forecasts
Q: What is your forecast for high yield default rates in 2026?
We're calling for a 1.75 percent default rate in 2026, equating to roughly 25 billion of volume.
What We’re Watching, Visa/Mastercard Spending Update, and KBRA DLD Default Forecasts
Q: What were the results for 2025 liquid credit?
The liquid market default rates came in largely as expected, with defaults closely tracking forecasts.
Credit’s Durability, Risk Concentrations, and Distressed Debt Exchanges
Q: What are the main takeaways from your paper examining Distressed Debt Exchanges?
The original DDE functioned largely as a band-aid, and within five years, roughly half the sample suffered a second negative event.

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Frequently Asked Questions About Van Hesser's 3 Things in Credit

What is Van Hesser's 3 Things in Credit about and what kind of topics does it cover?

The series delivers concise, data-driven takes on credit markets through three core themes each episode, focusing on rates dynamics, risk asset relationships (stocks, bonds, oil), and evolving credit fundamentals across consumer, financial, and private credit sectors. Across episodes, the host often synthesizes macro indicators, labor data, inflation signals, and central-bank commentary, with references to industry notes and private-credit developments to frame practical risk management and investment opportunities for credit investors. A notable strength is its steady, solo-host format that blends market storytelling with quantified signals, offering listeners a disciplined lens on how current events translate into credit risk and opportun... more

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1. The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence
2. FICC Focus
3. The View From Apollo
4. At Any Rate
5. The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

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Van Hesser's 3 Things in Credit launched 5 years ago and published 244 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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Recent guests on Van Hesser's 3 Things in Credit include:

1. Eric Rosenthal
2. Gordon Kerr
3. Joan Feldbaum-Vidra
4. Scott Slayton
5. Craig Packer

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