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Artwork for Probable Causation

Probable Causation

Jennifer Doleac
Recidivism
Criminal Justice Reform
Cognitive Behavioral Therapy
Criminal Justice System
Criminal Records
IGNITE Program
Restorative Justice
School Discipline
Employment
Educational Equity
Police Behavior
Community Supervision
Crime
Education
Employment Training
Pretrial Detention
Domestic Violence
Empathy In Education
California Criminal Justice
Policy Change

A show about law, economics, and crime. Hosted by Jennifer Doleac, economist and author of The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice.

PublishesMonthlyEpisodes171Founded7 years ago
Number of ListenersCategories
Society & CultureSocial SciencesScience

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Artwork for Probable Causation

Latest Episodes

Manisha Shah talks about reducing intimate partner violence among young people in Tanzania.

"Sex, Power, and Adolescence: Intimate Partner Violence and Sexual Behaviors" by Manisha Shah, Jennifer Seager, Joao Montalvao, and Markus Goldstein.

OTHER ... more

Juan Vargas talks about the unintended consequences of an anti-drug policy in Colombia.

"The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement" by Mounu Prem, Juan F. Vargas, and Daniel Mejía.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUS... more

David Phillips talks about the effects of providing free public transit.

"Eliminating Fares to Expand Opportunities: Experimental Evidence on the Impacts of Free Public Transportation on Economic and Social Disparities" by Rebecca Brough, Matthew Fr... more

Jennifer Doleac and Kathryn Paige Harden have a conversation about their new books, both about crime and punishment.

Jen’s book: The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice.

Paige’s book: Original Sin: On the Genetics of Vice, t... more

Key Facts

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Recent Guests

Manisha Shah
Development economist, Chancellor's Professor at UC Berkeley
University of California, Berkeley
Episode: Episode 127: Manisha Shah on reducing intimate partner violence among young people in Tanzania
Juan Vargas
Carlo Alberto Chair at Collegio Carlo Alberto, Italy
Collegio Carlo Alberto
Episode: Episode 126: Juan Vargas on the unintended consequences of an anti-drug policy in Colombia
David Phillips
Director of Research at the Lab for Economic Opportunities (LEO) at Notre Dame
University of Notre Dame, Lab for Economic Opportunities
Episode: Episode 125: David Phillips on the effects of free public transit
Paige Harden
Author of Original Sin, The Genetics of Vice, The Problem of Blame, and the Future of Forgiveness
University of Texas at Austin
Episode: Bonus episode 16: Jennifer Doleac and Kathryn Paige Harden in conversation about their new books
Steeve Marchand
Research fellow at the University of Melbourne
University of Melbourne
Episode: Episode 124: Steeve Marchand on the effects of prison programs
Ezra Golberstein
Professor of Health Policy and Management
University of Minnesota
Episode: Episode 123: Ezra Golberstein on school-based mental health services
Oeindrila Dube
Philip K. Pearson professor at the University of Chicago's Harris School of Public Policy
University of Chicago
Episode: Episode 104: Oeindrila Dube on cognitive behavioral training for police (REBROADCAST)
Vijetha Koppa
Assistant Professor of Economics at Zayed University in Dubai
Zayed University
Episode: Episode 122: Vijetha Koppa on Lethality Assessment Programs
Peter Blair
Associate Professor of Education at Harvard University
Harvard University
Episode: Episode 121: Peter Blair on occupational licenses as information about criminal records

Host

Jennifer Doleac
Host of Probable Causation

Reviews

4.3 out of 5 stars from 208 ratings
  • Amazingly insightful

    Amazingly insightful on very relevant social issues. Big recommendation for anyone who is interested in solving the most pressing social issues in a scientific and thus most impactful way! So glad this show exists. Thank you so much to the host and creators, guests and sponsors and all those involved!

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Sonne Susanne
    Germany7 months ago
  • Great to learn from

    This podcast feels like it has all the educational content of an economics seminar, without the most boring technical details. Plus, the conversations on how the authors got the data and where the research frontier are really helpful. For context, I’m an economics phd student.

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Snow_man100
    United Statesa year ago
  • Very trivial

    I don’t know why you choose to talk about mental health effects of prison. Lol there’re so many other interesting topics!

    Apple Podcasts
    2
    jas19890x
    United States3 years ago
  • Love the show

    This is a really great way to explore current research in the justice space. Love the host and the guests!

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Coleman Stove
    Canada3 years ago
  • I learn something every episode

    Podcast Addict
    5
    willwheels
    4 years ago

Listeners Say

Key themes from listener reviews, highlighting what works and what could be improved about the show.

Clear, rigorous discussions of policy with accessible explanations for non-experts
Some listeners feel the focus on mental health or specific topics can be narrow or too technical for casual listeners
High-quality guests from academia and policy who connect data to real-world impacts

Chart Rankings

How this podcast ranks in the Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube charts.

Talking Points

Recent interactions between the hosts and their guests.

Episode 125: David Phillips on the effects of free public transit
Q: What exactly was the treatment and how was the randomization conducted?
Treatment groups received a zero-fare card with the same appearance as the $1.50 fare card, valid for a few months, while the control group continued paying $1.50; enrollment and randomization were integrated into existing benefit-distribution workflows.
Episode 125: David Phillips on the effects of free public transit
Q: Why was Seattle interested in testing free fares, and how did the partnership with King County Metro come about?
Seattle's King County Metro pursued equity goals and administrative considerations around fare enforcement; the collaboration began via J-PAL connections and an interest in testing a policy that could reveal the trade-offs of free fares.
Episode 125: David Phillips on the effects of free public transit
Q: And before we get into that, could you tell us about your research expertise and how you became interested in this topic?
Phillips explains his focus on poverty and urban economics, how transportation costs act as a constraint for job search, and how early work with a nonprofit during the Great Recession led to randomized evaluations of transit subsidies.
Episode 104: Oeindrila Dube on cognitive behavioral training for police (REBROADCAST)
Q: So tell us about the situational decision-making training that you and your colleagues designed. What is it based on and what types of exercises does it involve?
The training is really rooted in behavioral science and draws heavily from the psychology of decision-making.
Episode 121: Peter Blair on occupational licenses as information about criminal records
Q: What are the policy implications of your results?
Licensing functions similarly to education and can reinforce racial disparities in the labor market if not managed carefully.

Audience Metrics

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Frequently Asked Questions About Probable Causation

What is Probable Causation about and what kind of topics does it cover?

A rigorous, data-driven look at law, economics, and crime, featuring researchers, policymakers, and practitioners who unpack how policies and institutions shape real-world outcomes. Episodes commonly explore empirical methods, natural experiments, and policy implications across topics like policing, education, housing, crime prevention, and justice reform. A standout aspect is the emphasis on methodological transparency and connecting academic findings to practical policy design, often with discussions about how to design interventions that meaningfully reduce harm while avoiding unintended consequences.

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Which podcasts are similar to Probable Causation?

These podcasts share a similar audience with Probable Causation:

1. The Argument
2. The Ezra Klein Show
3. Interesting Times with Ross Douthat
4. Conversations with Tyler
5. Freakonomics Radio

How many episodes of Probable Causation are there?

Probable Causation launched 7 years ago and published 171 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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What guests have appeared on Probable Causation?

Recent guests on Probable Causation include:

1. Manisha Shah
2. Juan Vargas
3. David Phillips
4. Paige Harden
5. Steeve Marchand
6. Ezra Golberstein
7. Oeindrila Dube
8. Vijetha Koppa

To view more recent guests and their details, simply upgrade your Rephonic account. You'll also get access to a typical guest profile to help you decide if the show is worth pitching.

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