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Probable Causation

Jennifer Doleac
Criminal Records
Recidivism
Restorative Justice
Criminal Justice System
School Discipline
Community Supervision
Educational Equity
Employment
Police Behavior
Reoffending
Reimprisonment
Truth In Sentencing
Policy Change
Empathy In Education
California Criminal Justice
Recidivism Rates
Labor Market Discrimination
Discrimination In Housing
Cognitive Behavioral Therapy
Decision-Making

A show about law, economics, and crime. Hosted by Jennifer Doleac, economist and author of The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice.

PublishesMonthlyEpisodes100Founded7 years ago
Number of ListenersCategories
ScienceSocial SciencesSociety & Culture

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Artwork for Probable Causation

Latest Episodes

Steeve Marchand talks about the effects of prison programs on behavior.

"Prison Rehabilitation Programs and Recidivism: Evidence from Variations in Availability" by William Arbour, Guy Lacroix, and Steeve Marchand.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS... more

Ezra Golberstein talks about the impacts of school-based mental health services.

"Effects of School-Based Mental Health Services on Youth Outcomes" by Ezra Golberstein, Irina Zainullina, Aaron Sojourner, and Mark A. Sander.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUS... more

Check out my new book!

The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice

In this episode of Probable Causation:

Oeindrila Dube talks about a cognitive behavioral training program for police. This episode was first posted in April 202... more

Vijetha Koppa talks about Lethality Assessment Programs used by police in domestic violence incidents.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Does the Certainty of Arrest Reduce Domestic Violence? Evidence from Mandatory and Recommended Arr... more

Key Facts

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Recent Guests

Steeve Marchand
Research fellow at the University of Melbourne
University of Melbourne
Episode: Episode 124: Steeve Marchand on the effects of prison programs
Ezra Golberstein
Professor of Health Policy and Management
University of Minnesota
Episode: Episode 123: Ezra Golberstein on school-based mental health services
Vijetha Koppa
Assistant Professor of Economics at Zayed University in Dubai
Zayed University
Episode: Episode 122: Vijetha Koppa on Lethality Assessment Programs
Peter Blair
Associate Professor of Education at Harvard University
Harvard University
Episode: Episode 121: Peter Blair on occupational licenses as information about criminal records
Joseph Doyle
Erwin H. Shell Professor of Management and Applied Economics at MIT
MIT
Episode: Episode 120: Joseph Doyle on improving foster care outcomes
Jens Ludwig
Edwin A and Betty L. Bergman Distinguished Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and director of the Crime Lab at the University of Chicago
University of Chicago
Episode: Bonus episode 15: Jens Ludwig on his book, Unforgiving Places
Elin Colmsjö
Economics PhD student at the University of Copenhagen and the Danish Central Bank
University of Copenhagen
Episode: Episode 119: Elin Colmsjö on how health shocks affect criminal behavior
Sekou Keita
Economics researcher at the Institute for Employment Research in Germany
Institute for Employment Research
Episode: Episode 118: Sekou Keita on media reporting policies, crime, and immigration
Nour Abdul-Razzak
Research director at the University of Chicago's Inclusive Economy Lab
University of Chicago
Episode: Episode 117: Nour Abdul-Razzak on cognitive behavioral therapy for at-risk youth

Host

Jennifer Doleac
Host of Probable Causation; economist focused on crime and justice; affiliated with Arnold Ventures (executive vice president, criminal justice) in many instances.

Reviews

4.3 out of 5 stars from 206 ratings
  • Amazingly insightful

    Amazingly insightful on very relevant social issues. Big recommendation for anyone who is interested in solving the most pressing social issues in a scientific and thus most impactful way! So glad this show exists. Thank you so much to the host and creators, guests and sponsors and all those involved!

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Sonne Susanne
    Germany3 months ago
  • Great to learn from

    This podcast feels like it has all the educational content of an economics seminar, without the most boring technical details. Plus, the conversations on how the authors got the data and where the research frontier are really helpful. For context, I’m an economics phd student.

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Snow_man100
    United Statesa year ago
  • Very trivial

    I don’t know why you choose to talk about mental health effects of prison. Lol there’re so many other interesting topics!

    Apple Podcasts
    2
    jas19890x
    United States3 years ago
  • Love the show

    This is a really great way to explore current research in the justice space. Love the host and the guests!

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Coleman Stove
    Canada3 years ago
  • I learn something every episode

    Podcast Addict
    5
    willwheels
    3 years ago

Listeners Say

Key themes from listener reviews, highlighting what works and what could be improved about the show.

Feedback is mixed on perceived bias or host style in some reviews.
Guests are high-caliber academics offering practical policy insights.
Listeners praise rigorous, accessible discussions of complex research.

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I've Had It
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Talking Points

Recent interactions between the hosts and their guests.

Episode 104: Oeindrila Dube on cognitive behavioral training for police (REBROADCAST)
Q: So tell us about the situational decision-making training that you and your colleagues designed. What is it based on and what types of exercises does it involve?
The training is really rooted in behavioral science and draws heavily from the psychology of decision-making.
Episode 121: Peter Blair on occupational licenses as information about criminal records
Q: What are the policy implications of your results?
Licensing functions similarly to education and can reinforce racial disparities in the labor market if not managed carefully.
Episode 121: Peter Blair on occupational licenses as information about criminal records
Q: How common is it for these licenses to bar people with criminal records?
There are a substantial number of licensing requirements that preclude workers with felony convictions from obtaining licenses.
Episode 120: Joseph Doyle on improving foster care outcomes
Q: What are the different ways that you were thinking kind of a priori that this program might affect kids' outcomes?
Doyle discusses that enhanced legal aid could improve efficiency by reducing red tape and that the psychological and social support provided could have direct positive effects on family well-being.
Episode 120: Joseph Doyle on improving foster care outcomes
Q: So what are the shortcomings of the current process? What's going wrong here?
Doyle mentions that there's a desire to reduce child maltreatment and outlines that there are new federal funds aimed at preventing foster care placements, but more research is needed to identify which interventions are most effective.

Audience Metrics

Listeners, social reach, demographics and more for this podcast.

Listeners per Episode
Gender Skew
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Interests
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Age Range
Household Income
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Frequently Asked Questions About Probable Causation

What is Probable Causation about and what kind of topics does it cover?

A rigorous, research-focused show at the intersection of law, economics, and crime. Episodes feature prominent academics and policy researchers discussing empirical work on topics like recidivism, mental health, policing, and criminal justice reform, with an emphasis on causal methods and real-world policy implications. Listeners are likely researchers, policymakers, and professionals interested in evidence-driven approaches to crime and justice, with a knack for understanding methodology and data challenges. A standout aspect is the steady stream of heavyweight guest researchers and the practical policy lens, making complex topics accessible to a broader audience without sacrificing rigor.

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How many listeners does Probable Causation get?

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Which podcasts are similar to Probable Causation?

These podcasts share a similar audience with Probable Causation:

1. The Gray Area with Sean Illing
2. Capitalisn't
3. Hard Fork
4. Freakonomics Radio
5. Interesting Times with Ross Douthat

How many episodes of Probable Causation are there?

Probable Causation launched 7 years ago and published 100 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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What guests have appeared on Probable Causation?

Recent guests on Probable Causation include:

1. Steeve Marchand
2. Ezra Golberstein
3. Vijetha Koppa
4. Peter Blair
5. Joseph Doyle
6. Jens Ludwig
7. Elin Colmsjö
8. Sekou Keita

To view more recent guests and their details, simply upgrade your Rephonic account. You'll also get access to a typical guest profile to help you decide if the show is worth pitching.

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