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Artwork for Probable Causation

Probable Causation

Jennifer Doleac
Recidivism
Criminal Justice Reform
Cognitive Behavioral Therapy
Criminal Justice System
Criminal Records
IGNITE Program
Restorative Justice
School Discipline
Employment
Educational Equity
Police Behavior
Community Supervision
Education
Employment Training
Crime
Pretrial Detention
Domestic Violence
Empathy In Education
Policy Change
Criminal Justice

A show about law, economics, and crime. Hosted by Jennifer Doleac, economist and author of The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice.

PublishesMonthlyEpisodes100Founded7 years ago
Number of ListenersCategories
Social SciencesScienceSociety & Culture

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Artwork for Probable Causation

Latest Episodes

Juan Vargas talks about the unintended consequences of an anti-drug policy in Colombia.

"The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement" by Mounu Prem, Juan F. Vargas, and Daniel Mejía.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUS... more

David Phillips talks about the effects of providing free public transit.

"Eliminating Fares to Expand Opportunities: Experimental Evidence on the Impacts of Free Public Transportation on Economic and Social Disparities" by Rebecca Brough, Matthew Fr... more

Jennifer Doleac and Kathryn Paige Harden have a conversation about their new books, both about crime and punishment.

Jen’s book: The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice.

Paige’s book: Original Sin: On the Genetics of Vice, t... more

Steeve Marchand talks about the effects of prison programs on behavior.

"Prison Rehabilitation Programs and Recidivism: Evidence from Variations in Availability" by William Arbour, Guy Lacroix, and Steeve Marchand.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS... more

Key Facts

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Recent Guests

Juan Vargas
Carlo Alberto Chair at Collegio Carlo Alberto, Italy
Collegio Carlo Alberto
Episode: Episode 126: Juan Vargas on the unintended consequences of an anti-drug policy in Colombia
David Phillips
Director of Research at the Lab for Economic Opportunities (LEO) at Notre Dame
University of Notre Dame, Lab for Economic Opportunities
Episode: Episode 125: David Phillips on the effects of free public transit
Paige Harden
Author of Original Sin, The Genetics of Vice, The Problem of Blame, and the Future of Forgiveness
University of Texas at Austin
Episode: Bonus episode 16: Jennifer Doleac and Kathryn Paige Harden in conversation about their new books
Steeve Marchand
Research fellow at the University of Melbourne
University of Melbourne
Episode: Episode 124: Steeve Marchand on the effects of prison programs
Ezra Golberstein
Professor of Health Policy and Management
University of Minnesota
Episode: Episode 123: Ezra Golberstein on school-based mental health services
Oeindrila Dube
Philip K. Pearson professor at the University of Chicago's Harris School of Public Policy
University of Chicago
Episode: Episode 104: Oeindrila Dube on cognitive behavioral training for police (REBROADCAST)
Vijetha Koppa
Assistant Professor of Economics at Zayed University in Dubai
Zayed University
Episode: Episode 122: Vijetha Koppa on Lethality Assessment Programs
Peter Blair
Associate Professor of Education at Harvard University
Harvard University
Episode: Episode 121: Peter Blair on occupational licenses as information about criminal records
Joseph Doyle
Erwin H. Shell Professor of Management and Applied Economics at MIT
MIT
Episode: Episode 120: Joseph Doyle on improving foster care outcomes

Host

Jennifer Doleac
Host of Probable Causation; economist focused on crime and justice; affiliated with Arnold Ventures (executive vice president, criminal justice) in many instances.

Reviews

4.3 out of 5 stars from 207 ratings
  • Amazingly insightful

    Amazingly insightful on very relevant social issues. Big recommendation for anyone who is interested in solving the most pressing social issues in a scientific and thus most impactful way! So glad this show exists. Thank you so much to the host and creators, guests and sponsors and all those involved!

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Sonne Susanne
    Germany5 months ago
  • Great to learn from

    This podcast feels like it has all the educational content of an economics seminar, without the most boring technical details. Plus, the conversations on how the authors got the data and where the research frontier are really helpful. For context, I’m an economics phd student.

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Snow_man100
    United Statesa year ago
  • Very trivial

    I don’t know why you choose to talk about mental health effects of prison. Lol there’re so many other interesting topics!

    Apple Podcasts
    2
    jas19890x
    United States3 years ago
  • Love the show

    This is a really great way to explore current research in the justice space. Love the host and the guests!

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Coleman Stove
    Canada3 years ago
  • I learn something every episode

    Podcast Addict
    5
    willwheels
    4 years ago

Listeners Say

Key themes from listener reviews, highlighting what works and what could be improved about the show.

Feedback is mixed on perceived bias or host style in some reviews.
Guests are high-caliber academics offering practical policy insights.
Listeners praise rigorous, accessible discussions of complex research.

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Talking Points

Recent interactions between the hosts and their guests.

Episode 125: David Phillips on the effects of free public transit
Q: What exactly was the treatment and how was the randomization conducted?
Treatment groups received a zero-fare card with the same appearance as the $1.50 fare card, valid for a few months, while the control group continued paying $1.50; enrollment and randomization were integrated into existing benefit-distribution workflows.
Episode 125: David Phillips on the effects of free public transit
Q: Why was Seattle interested in testing free fares, and how did the partnership with King County Metro come about?
Seattle's King County Metro pursued equity goals and administrative considerations around fare enforcement; the collaboration began via J-PAL connections and an interest in testing a policy that could reveal the trade-offs of free fares.
Episode 125: David Phillips on the effects of free public transit
Q: And before we get into that, could you tell us about your research expertise and how you became interested in this topic?
Phillips explains his focus on poverty and urban economics, how transportation costs act as a constraint for job search, and how early work with a nonprofit during the Great Recession led to randomized evaluations of transit subsidies.
Episode 104: Oeindrila Dube on cognitive behavioral training for police (REBROADCAST)
Q: So tell us about the situational decision-making training that you and your colleagues designed. What is it based on and what types of exercises does it involve?
The training is really rooted in behavioral science and draws heavily from the psychology of decision-making.
Episode 121: Peter Blair on occupational licenses as information about criminal records
Q: What are the policy implications of your results?
Licensing functions similarly to education and can reinforce racial disparities in the labor market if not managed carefully.

Audience Metrics

Listeners, social reach, demographics and more for this podcast.

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Frequently Asked Questions About Probable Causation

What is Probable Causation about and what kind of topics does it cover?

A rigorous, research-focused show at the intersection of law, economics, and crime. Episodes feature prominent academics and policy researchers discussing empirical work on topics like recidivism, mental health, policing, and criminal justice reform, with an emphasis on causal methods and real-world policy implications. Listeners are likely researchers, policymakers, and professionals interested in evidence-driven approaches to crime and justice, with a knack for understanding methodology and data challenges. A standout aspect is the steady stream of heavyweight guest researchers and the practical policy lens, making complex topics accessible to a broader audience without sacrificing rigor.

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How many listeners does Probable Causation get?

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Which podcasts are similar to Probable Causation?

These podcasts share a similar audience with Probable Causation:

1. Political Gabfest
2. Amicus With Dahlia Lithwick | Law, justice, and the courts
3. The Ezra Klein Show
4. The Argument
5. The Lawfare Podcast

How many episodes of Probable Causation are there?

Probable Causation launched 7 years ago and published 100 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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What guests have appeared on Probable Causation?

Recent guests on Probable Causation include:

1. Juan Vargas
2. David Phillips
3. Paige Harden
4. Steeve Marchand
5. Ezra Golberstein
6. Oeindrila Dube
7. Vijetha Koppa
8. Peter Blair

To view more recent guests and their details, simply upgrade your Rephonic account. You'll also get access to a typical guest profile to help you decide if the show is worth pitching.

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