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Excess Returns

Excess Returns
Inflation
Artificial Intelligence
S&P 500
Investment Strategies
Tariffs
Value Investing
Federal Reserve
China
Investing
Investment Strategy
Risk Management
Options Trading
Volatility
Market Dynamics
Labor Market
Market Trends
Diversification
Intangible Assets
Gold
Private Credit

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

PublishesDailyEpisodes516Founded7 years ago
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Latest Episodes

On the latest Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson discuss what could happen when SpaceX goes public and why this IPO may be as much a market structure problem as a valuation problem.

They break down the potential impact of a $1.7... more

Jim Paulsen returns to Excess Returns to discuss why he is increasingly concerned about a meaningful stock market pullback, even though he does not expect a bear market. We cover the extreme divide between AI-driven “new era” stocks and the rest of t... more

Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to break down his latest research on AI disruption, software stocks, value traps, and intangible moats. We discuss why software valuations have collapsed, why traditional value investing can fail durin... more

YouTube

In this episode of Last Call, we break down one of the most confusing market backdrops in years: AI-driven earnings optimism, rising oil and inflation risk, stretched options positioning, and the market impact of a potential SpaceX IPO. Jack Forehand... more

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Recent Guests

Gene Munster
Managing Partner, Deepwater Asset Management; founder of Intelligent Alpha
Deepwater Asset Management / Intelligent Alpha
Episode: Is AI Still in 1995? Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on the Next Phase of the AI Boom
Jeremy Grantham
Investor, co-founder of GMO
GMO
Episode: Jeremy Grantham on AI, Bubbles and Why Mean Reversion Lives On
Marc Rubinstein
Author and founder of the Net Interest newsletter
Net Interest (Substack)
Episode: He Studied the Financial System for Decades | Marc Rubinstein on Where the Real Risk Is
Edward Chancellor
financial historian, journalist, and investment strategist
GMO (formerly) and author of The Price of Time and other works
Episode: He Wrote the Book on Bubbles | Edward Chancellor on If AI is Different
Rich Bernstein
Investment thinker and guest
Independent investor
Episode: We Asked Rich Bernstein and Chris Davis Why This Market Isn’t as Safe as It Feels
Kevin Muir
MacroTourist, focuses on market narratives and flows
MacroTourist
Episode: We Asked Ben Hunt, Jim Paulsen, Kevin Muir and Brent Kochuba Why Bad News Can’t Break This Market
Richard Bernstein
Global head of macro and custom strategies at Janus Henderson Investors
Janus Henderson Investors
Episode: The Opportunity No One Sees | Richard Bernstein on Finding Value in a Narrow Market
Chris Davis
Founder of Davis Advisors, long-term fundamentally driven investor
Davis Advisors
Episode: Feeling Safe Is the Risk | Chris Davis on Finding Durable Companies in a Disrupted World
Travis Prentice
CIO of Informed Momentum Company
Informed Momentum Company
Episode: Buy High, Sell Higher | Travis Prentice on Dispersion, Passive's Structural Risk and Why 52 Week Highs Don't Mean What You Think

Hosts

Jack Forehand
Host of Excess Returns at Excess Returns
Justin Carbonneau
Co-host of Excess Returns at Excess Returns
Matt Zeigler
Host and co-host, known for Last Call and investing analysis

Reviews

4.7 out of 5 stars from 174 ratings
  • Pick guests more carefully

    I very much enjoy your podcasts, topics and guests. However I feel you crossed the line with Tony Greer and let him move your Podcast into the political sphere. I am going to guess that’s not what your typical listeners want to hear. Still on board and looking forward to new and unique topics - but please stay away from extreme thinkers who spew garbage to churn their niche asset class.

    Apple Podcasts
    4
    Triple Gee
    United States4 months ago
  • Tony Greer

    Tony Greer= one star, hard to take investment advice from such a blow hard.

    Apple Podcasts
    1
    maybdihjlz
    United States4 months ago
  • Tony Greer's appearance

    This was by far the poorest show I've heard from an otherwise useful podcast series. Tony Greer spouts data-free opinions about directions of markets and the economy without any challenge from the host. I don't mind a contrarian, but I expect to hear a well-reasoned set of opinions backing up contrarian views. In this case nothing but tripe. And generally, great investors don't focus on politics, as they try to make money no matter who is running the show, but politics was a massive basis for ... more

    Apple Podcasts
    1
    Davechem 1
    United States4 months ago
  • Dichotomy

    This show has some of the best guests (thoughtful/apolitical/hard research based) and some of the worst guests (narrative based/psuedo-research based/politically biased). Too bad, it could easily be so much better.

    Apple Podcasts
    3
    Davidjschultz
    United States4 months ago
  • 4th turning 🌎

    I’m so glad you guys have finished with Grant Williams now. Squee

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Qrrvjkgxhjlkvg
    United States5 months ago

Listeners Say

Key themes from listener reviews, highlighting what works and what could be improved about the show.

Hosts let guests talk and challenge with solid questions.
Thoughtful guests and deep-dive data discussions are a hallmark.
Content is consistently valuable for long-term investing.

Chart Rankings

How this podcast ranks in the Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube charts.

Apple Podcasts
#98
United States/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#27
Canada/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#54
United Kingdom/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#83
Canada/Business
Apple Podcasts
#179
United Kingdom/Business
Apple Podcasts
#75
Italy/Business/Investing

Talking Points

Recent interactions between the hosts and their guests.

He Studied the Financial System for Decades | Marc Rubinstein on Where the Real Risk Is
Q: What should investors watch in bank earnings given the current credit cycle dynamics?
Investors should scrutinize not just headline earnings but the quality of loan books, delinquencies, and off-balance-sheet exposures. The dichotomy between consumer confidence data and actual spending signals a complex macro backdrop, so pay attention to credit loss provisions, loan growth versus risk controls, and the resilience of funding and liquidity.
He Studied the Financial System for Decades | Marc Rubinstein on Where the Real Risk Is
Q: How has the role of insurance companies evolved in private credit, and what latent risks does that imply?
Insurance-linked credit expanded as insurers sought long-duration assets to match liabilities, leading to blurred lines between origination and distribution. Latent risks include cross-holdings, misaligned incentives, and regulatory gaps across jurisdictions, which regulators are scrutinizing due to potential knock-on effects in credit markets.
Jeremy Grantham on AI, Bubbles and Why Mean Reversion Lives On
Q: How should average investors think about mean reversion in the context of rising AI-enabled profits and the dominance of the Mag-7?
Investors should recognize that mean reversion remains a powerful, long-run tendency; early adopters may enjoy wider margins temporarily, but over time competitive forces, innovation, and higher capital needs tend to bring profits back toward historical norms.
Jeremy Grantham on AI, Bubbles and Why Mean Reversion Lives On
Q: Does AI exacerbate this or make it better for the big incumbents or the market as a whole?
AI can act as a wind at the back for big incumbents by accelerating capital expenditure and productivity gains, but it can also enable smaller firms to compete more effectively over time; ultimately, the effect depends on how adoption proceeds and competitive dynamics evolve.
He Studied Every Bear Market Since 1929 | Ben Carlson on How the Worst Starting Point Still Made 8%
Q: What do you see as the biggest lesson investors should take away from the book's themes?
The core idea is that risk and reward are inseparable, and investors should accept trade-offs between potential returns and drawdowns while focusing on durable processes rather than trying to time every market move.

Audience Metrics

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Frequently Asked Questions About Excess Returns

What is Excess Returns about and what kind of topics does it cover?

This show focuses on long-horizon investing, blending quantitative and fundamental approaches to value, factor, and macro themes. Episodes frequently cover market regimes, AI impacts on investing, capital cycles, and the tension between passive and active strategies, all with guests ranging from legendary value investors to quants and macro strategists. Listeners can expect rigorous analysis, data-driven discussions, and candid debates about risk, timing, and portfolio construction, with a practical emphasis on durable, repeatable approaches over short-term calls. A notable strength is the mix of deep-dive guests and accessible explanations, making sophisticated finance topics approachable for professional and serious individual investors a... more

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Which podcasts are similar to Excess Returns?

These podcasts share a similar audience with Excess Returns:

1. The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing
2. Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
3. The Acquirers Podcast
4. Forward Guidance
5. Top Traders Unplugged

How many episodes of Excess Returns are there?

Excess Returns launched 7 years ago and published 516 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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What guests have appeared on Excess Returns?

Recent guests on Excess Returns include:

1. Gene Munster
2. Jeremy Grantham
3. Marc Rubinstein
4. Edward Chancellor
5. Rich Bernstein
6. Kevin Muir
7. Richard Bernstein
8. Chris Davis

To view more recent guests and their details, simply upgrade your Rephonic account. You'll also get access to a typical guest profile to help you decide if the show is worth pitching.

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