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Excess Returns

Excess Returns
Artificial Intelligence
Inflation
S&P 500
Investment Strategies
China
Tariffs
Value Investing
Options Trading
Federal Reserve
Volatility
Investment Strategy
Emerging Markets
Market Dynamics
Warren Buffett
Gold
Private Credit
Investing
Labor Market
Private Equity
Active Management

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

PublishesDailyEpisodes546Founded7 years ago
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Latest Episodes

Richard Bernstein and David Rosenberg reunite to debate the Federal Reserve, inflation, the AI investment boom, market bubbles, gold and the case for international diversification. The former Merrill Lynch colleagues examine whether the Fed should ra... more

Tian Yang, head of research at Variant Perception and portfolio manager of the VPX ETF, explains how investors can use adaptive leading indicators, capital cycle analysis and behavioral signals to navigate a market shaped by AI spending, inflation an... more

YouTube

Brent Donnelly joins Matt Zeigler to explain how professional traders build a durable edge through risk management, trading psychology, probabilistic thinking, and creative market analysis.

Drawing from his new book, Trade Outside the Box: Advanced ... more

On this episode of our new market wrap show Last Call, we examine the hidden rotation beneath calm stock market indexes, including sharp AI and semiconductor volatility, small-cap strength, forced fund liquidations, higher rates and changing Federal ... more

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Recent Guests

Cameron Dawson
Research analyst, market strategist
Prosperant
Episode: A $20B Blowup. A War-Sized AI Bet. Was the Bottom Just a Margin Call? | Last Call
Dave Nadig
Director of research
ETFdb / ETF Trends
Episode: A $20B Blowup. A War-Sized AI Bet. Was the Bottom Just a Margin Call? | Last Call
Wes Gray
Founder/CEO of Alpha Architect and QVAL; influential figure in factor investing
Alpha Architect / QVAL
Episode: Even God Would Be Fired | Wes Gray on Bubbles, AI Valuations and Why Size Was Never the Edge
Azeem Azhar
Exponential View founder, technologist, investor, author
Exponential View
Episode: We Asked the Man Who Mapped the AI Economy If the Boom Is Real — And Who Keeps the Money
Jack Schwager
Author of Market Wizards series; interviewer and featured trader stories
Market Wizards author and interviewer
Episode: Jack Schwager on Timeless Lessons from Elite Traders
Matt Zenz
Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Longview Research Partners; Manager of Longview Advantage ETF and Longview Advantage Fixed Income ETF
Longview Research Partners
Episode: We Asked a $1 Billion Quant Manager Why Concentration Isn't a Warning — and Small Caps Aren't Dead
Jeff Klingelhofer
Managing director at Aristotle Pacific and fixed income portfolio manager
Aristotle Pacific / PIMCO / Thurnberg
Episode: The $600 Billion Loop | Jeff Klingelhofer on AI, the Return of Bonds and the Fed's Third Mandate
Eric Pachman
Data for the People contributor
Data for the People
Episode: Semis Gone Parabolic. Fed Credibility Reversal. Can the Rally Survive the Flows?
Warren Pies
Investment researcher with a focus on AI, macro, and semiconductors
314Research
Episode: The AI Trade, the Fed and the Next Phase of the Bull Market | Warren Pies

Hosts

Jack Forehand
Host of Excess Returns at Excess Returns
Justin Carbonneau
Co-host of Excess Returns at Excess Returns
Matt Zeigler
Host and co-host, known for Last Call and investing analysis

Reviews

4.7 out of 5 stars from 178 ratings
  • Pick guests more carefully

    I very much enjoy your podcasts, topics and guests. However I feel you crossed the line with Tony Greer and let him move your Podcast into the political sphere. I am going to guess that’s not what your typical listeners want to hear. Still on board and looking forward to new and unique topics - but please stay away from extreme thinkers who spew garbage to churn their niche asset class.

    Apple Podcasts
    4
    Triple Gee
    United States6 months ago
  • Tony Greer

    Tony Greer= one star, hard to take investment advice from such a blow hard.

    Apple Podcasts
    1
    maybdihjlz
    United States6 months ago
  • Tony Greer's appearance

    This was by far the poorest show I've heard from an otherwise useful podcast series. Tony Greer spouts data-free opinions about directions of markets and the economy without any challenge from the host. I don't mind a contrarian, but I expect to hear a well-reasoned set of opinions backing up contrarian views. In this case nothing but tripe. And generally, great investors don't focus on politics, as they try to make money no matter who is running the show, but politics was a massive basis for ... more

    Apple Podcasts
    1
    Davechem 1
    United States6 months ago
  • Dichotomy

    This show has some of the best guests (thoughtful/apolitical/hard research based) and some of the worst guests (narrative based/psuedo-research based/politically biased). Too bad, it could easily be so much better.

    Apple Podcasts
    3
    Davidjschultz
    United States6 months ago
  • 4th turning 🌎

    I’m so glad you guys have finished with Grant Williams now. Squee

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Qrrvjkgxhjlkvg
    United States7 months ago

Listeners Say

Key themes from listener reviews, highlighting what works and what could be improved about the show.

Hosts let guests talk and challenge with solid questions.
Thoughtful guests and deep-dive data discussions are a hallmark.
Content is consistently valuable for long-term investing.

Chart Rankings

How this podcast ranks in the Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube charts.

Talking Points

Recent interactions between the hosts and their guests.

We Asked the Man Who Mapped the AI Economy If the Boom Is Real — And Who Keeps the Money
Q: Do we expect pressure from open-source models to reshape pricing and business models in the proprietary model space?
Yes, open-source models pressure proprietary providers on price and terms, pushing incumbents to innovate around pricing, data, and service, while allowing customers to choose more cost-effective or customizable solutions.
We Asked the Man Who Mapped the AI Economy If the Boom Is Real — And Who Keeps the Money
Q: How does vertical integration influence competition and pricing power across the AI ecosystem?
Vertical integration provides strategic control and could alter bargaining power among hyperscalers, labs, and customers. As more players own chips, hosting, and models, competition may become more fragmented, with some clusters of expertise forming around particular vertical needs (finance, legal, biotech).
We Asked the Man Who Mapped the AI Economy If the Boom Is Real — And Who Keeps the Money
Q: What does the four-layer taxonomy mean for where value will accrue in the AI stack, and how has that evolved recently?
The value ladder started with hardware and has moved up through hosting and foundation models, with apps capturing more of the value as models mature. Recently, labs like OpenAI and Anthropic are capturing more gross margins, suggesting a shift toward higher layers, though the hosting layer remains strong due to demand for compute and data center capacity.
A War-Sized AI Bet. Private Credit Went All In. Will the Government End Up Owning It?
Q: What are the things we watch now to see how this is progressing, especially on the political and policy fronts?
Ben explains that negative and bear narratives around AI capex are re-emerging, political narratives around AI are worsening, and energy/story shifts are changing how markets anticipate policy responses, including potential backstops and price controls.
It Only Happens at Bottoms | Andy Constan on the Options Extreme That Showed Up at the Highs
Q: Is this a short-term anomaly or do you think there are longer-term implications for the market when implied volatilities stay elevated in the face of recent rallies?
Implied volatilities remaining high despite rallies suggest structural dynamics in risk pricing and hedging behavior, not just a temporary spike; the broader implication is that there could be continued volatility and potential for abrupt shifts if hedges roll off and supply-demand imbalances persist.

Audience Metrics

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Frequently Asked Questions About Excess Returns

What is Excess Returns about and what kind of topics does it cover?

This show focuses on long-horizon investing, blending quantitative and fundamental approaches to value, factor, and macro themes. Episodes frequently cover market regimes, AI impacts on investing, capital cycles, and the tension between passive and active strategies, all with guests ranging from legendary value investors to quants and macro strategists. Listeners can expect rigorous analysis, data-driven discussions, and candid debates about risk, timing, and portfolio construction, with a practical emphasis on durable, repeatable approaches over short-term calls. A notable strength is the mix of deep-dive guests and accessible explanations, making sophisticated finance topics approachable for professional and serious individual investors a... more

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Which podcasts are similar to Excess Returns?

These podcasts share a similar audience with Excess Returns:

1. The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing
2. Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
3. The Acquirers Podcast
4. Forward Guidance
5. Top Traders Unplugged

How many episodes of Excess Returns are there?

Excess Returns launched 7 years ago and published 546 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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What guests have appeared on Excess Returns?

Recent guests on Excess Returns include:

1. Cameron Dawson
2. Dave Nadig
3. Wes Gray
4. Azeem Azhar
5. Jack Schwager
6. Matt Zenz
7. Jeff Klingelhofer
8. Eric Pachman

To view more recent guests and their details, simply upgrade your Rephonic account. You'll also get access to a typical guest profile to help you decide if the show is worth pitching.

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