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Excess Returns

Excess Returns
Artificial Intelligence
Inflation
S&P 500
Tariffs
Investment Strategies
Value Investing
China
Federal Reserve
Options Trading
Investing
Investment Strategy
Volatility
Risk Management
Market Dynamics
Emerging Markets
Market Trends
Gold
Private Credit
Labor Market
Diversification

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

PublishesDailyEpisodes536Founded7 years ago
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Latest Episodes

On the Latest First Principles, Andy Constan explains what the options market is signaling about the AI and semiconductor boom, why he believes earnings expectations have outrun the size of the economy, and where the next risks may emerge. We discuss... more

Jack Schwager joins Excess Returns to discuss Market Wizards: The Next Generation and the extraordinary young traders profiled in the newest installment of the Market Wizards series.

He explains how traders turned small accounts into fortunes, survi... more

YouTube

Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to explain why headline employment and inflation data may be giving investors an incomplete picture of the U.S. economy. They examine falling labor force participation, Medicaid-funded healthcare j... more

Jim Paulsen joins us to explain why weakening economic momentum, tightening financial conditions and extreme AI enthusiasm could set the stage for a 10% to 20% stock market correction. We discuss labor market weakness, the growing divide between tech... more

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Recent Guests

Ben Inker
Head of Asset Allocation at GMO
GMO
Episode: We Asked GMO’s Head of Asset Allocation Why This Bubble is Easy — But Investors Will Get it Wrong
Ian Smith
Portfolio manager on the William Blair global equity team
William Blair
Episode: Finding Quality Growth in Emerging Markets with Ian Smith
Joe Davis
Global Chief Economist and Global Head of the Investment Strategy Group at Vanguard
Vanguard
Episode: We Asked Vanguard’s Chief Economist Why AI Has Two Huge Tails — And Which One Wins
Aahan Menon
Founder of Prometheus Macro
Prometheus Macro
Episode: The Three Cracks in the AI Trade | Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Aahan Menon on What Could Derail the Market's Biggest Bet
Eric Crittenden
Guest on Excess Returns
Standpoint Funds
Episode: He Built the Fund He'd Hold 30 Years | Eric Crittenden on What Investors Pick When Labels Come Off
Doug Clinton
Co-founder, Deepwater Asset Management
Deepwater Asset Management
Episode: Is AI Still in 1995? Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on the Next Phase of the AI Boom
Gene Munster
Managing Partner, Deepwater Asset Management; founder of Intelligent Alpha
Deepwater Asset Management / Intelligent Alpha
Episode: Is AI Still in 1995? Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on the Next Phase of the AI Boom
Jeremy Grantham
Investor, co-founder of GMO
GMO
Episode: Jeremy Grantham on AI, Bubbles and Why Mean Reversion Lives On
Marc Rubinstein
Author and founder of the Net Interest newsletter
Net Interest (Substack)
Episode: He Studied the Financial System for Decades | Marc Rubinstein on Where the Real Risk Is

Hosts

Jack Forehand
Host of Excess Returns at Excess Returns
Justin Carbonneau
Co-host of Excess Returns at Excess Returns
Matt Zeigler
Host and co-host, known for Last Call and investing analysis

Reviews

4.7 out of 5 stars from 178 ratings
  • Pick guests more carefully

    I very much enjoy your podcasts, topics and guests. However I feel you crossed the line with Tony Greer and let him move your Podcast into the political sphere. I am going to guess that’s not what your typical listeners want to hear. Still on board and looking forward to new and unique topics - but please stay away from extreme thinkers who spew garbage to churn their niche asset class.

    Apple Podcasts
    4
    Triple Gee
    United States6 months ago
  • Tony Greer

    Tony Greer= one star, hard to take investment advice from such a blow hard.

    Apple Podcasts
    1
    maybdihjlz
    United States6 months ago
  • Tony Greer's appearance

    This was by far the poorest show I've heard from an otherwise useful podcast series. Tony Greer spouts data-free opinions about directions of markets and the economy without any challenge from the host. I don't mind a contrarian, but I expect to hear a well-reasoned set of opinions backing up contrarian views. In this case nothing but tripe. And generally, great investors don't focus on politics, as they try to make money no matter who is running the show, but politics was a massive basis for ... more

    Apple Podcasts
    1
    Davechem 1
    United States6 months ago
  • Dichotomy

    This show has some of the best guests (thoughtful/apolitical/hard research based) and some of the worst guests (narrative based/psuedo-research based/politically biased). Too bad, it could easily be so much better.

    Apple Podcasts
    3
    Davidjschultz
    United States6 months ago
  • 4th turning 🌎

    I’m so glad you guys have finished with Grant Williams now. Squee

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Qrrvjkgxhjlkvg
    United States6 months ago

Listeners Say

Key themes from listener reviews, highlighting what works and what could be improved about the show.

Hosts let guests talk and challenge with solid questions.
Thoughtful guests and deep-dive data discussions are a hallmark.
Content is consistently valuable for long-term investing.

Chart Rankings

How this podcast ranks in the Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube charts.

Apple Podcasts
#78
United States/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#78
United Kingdom/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#94
Canada/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#223
Canada/Business
Apple Podcasts
#245
United Kingdom/Business
Apple Podcasts
#81
Italy/Business/Investing

Talking Points

Recent interactions between the hosts and their guests.

Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapEx, and the End of the Buyback Tailwind
Q: What is the potential long-term impact of this capex-led supply on markets and the economy, particularly regarding inflation and GDP?
If capex sustains a trillion-dollar yearly pace and productivity improvements materialize, it could support real GDP growth and offset inflation via disinflationary productivity gains; however, the trajectory depends on how effectively these investments translate into higher output and how policymakers manage inflation and balance sheet policies.
Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapEx, and the End of the Buyback Tailwind
Q: With SpaceX as a leader, how do you view the divergence between buybacks and a wave of new issuance going forward, especially given AI and capex needs?
The shift from buybacks to new equity issuance driven by capex and AI investment is a structural change that increases supply of shares in the market. This requires robust earnings and productivity gains to absorb the issued equity, and it may put a lid on asset prices unless productivity translates into tangible growth and inflation dynamics evolve.
Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapEx, and the End of the Buyback Tailwind
Q: How would you score or read the SpaceX IPO, and did it meet your expectations for a well-functioning IPO?
SpaceX appears to have been priced aggressively but in a way that attracted sufficient aftermarket demand, achieving a balance among issuers, underwriters, and investors to avoid a big mispricing; the deal traded up from the issue price, reflecting solid demand and a favorable initial reception, even as some investors couldn't get the full allocation.
We Asked GMO’s Head of Asset Allocation Why This Bubble is Easy — But Investors Will Get it Wrong
Q: What is your process for asset return forecasting and how do you determine fair value for assets?
We forecast seven years ahead by estimating the income, growth, and the valuation return needed to bring assets back to fair value, assuming a gradual mean reversion. We consider multiple scenarios for interest rates and compute fair value relative to cash, bonds, and equities, which helps clients understand how different environments affect long-run returns.
The Trillion Dollar Gap | Aswath Damodaran on SpaceX, AI and the Big Market Delusion
Q: Can you walk me through your SpaceX valuation? What was your target valuation and how did you arrive at this figure?
Damodaran lays out three stories for SpaceX: the space-launch business with cost advantages, the Starlink connectivity business with a growing reach, and the AI business Grok/enterprise AI. He uses a bottom-up scenario analysis, adjusting TAM, unit economics, and reinvestment needs, and ultimately values SpaceX at around the trillions but with a cautious stance due to uncertain margins and high capex, implying a range rather than a single number.

Audience Metrics

Listeners, social reach, demographics and more for this podcast.

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Frequently Asked Questions About Excess Returns

What is Excess Returns about and what kind of topics does it cover?

This show focuses on long-horizon investing, blending quantitative and fundamental approaches to value, factor, and macro themes. Episodes frequently cover market regimes, AI impacts on investing, capital cycles, and the tension between passive and active strategies, all with guests ranging from legendary value investors to quants and macro strategists. Listeners can expect rigorous analysis, data-driven discussions, and candid debates about risk, timing, and portfolio construction, with a practical emphasis on durable, repeatable approaches over short-term calls. A notable strength is the mix of deep-dive guests and accessible explanations, making sophisticated finance topics approachable for professional and serious individual investors a... more

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Which podcasts are similar to Excess Returns?

These podcasts share a similar audience with Excess Returns:

1. The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing
2. Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
3. The Acquirers Podcast
4. Top Traders Unplugged
5. Forward Guidance

How many episodes of Excess Returns are there?

Excess Returns launched 7 years ago and published 536 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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What guests have appeared on Excess Returns?

Recent guests on Excess Returns include:

1. Ben Inker
2. Ian Smith
3. Joe Davis
4. Aahan Menon
5. Eric Crittenden
6. Doug Clinton
7. Gene Munster
8. Jeremy Grantham

To view more recent guests and their details, simply upgrade your Rephonic account. You'll also get access to a typical guest profile to help you decide if the show is worth pitching.

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