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Excess Returns

Excess Returns
Inflation
Artificial Intelligence
S&P 500
Tariffs
Investment Strategies
Value Investing
Federal Reserve
China
Investing
Investment Strategy
Options Trading
Risk Management
Volatility
Market Dynamics
Labor Market
Market Trends
Diversification
Gold
Private Credit
Emerging Markets

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

PublishesDailyEpisodes525Founded7 years ago
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Latest Episodes

On this episode of the 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Matt Zeigler discuss long-term investing, 100-baggers, AI stocks, SpaceX valuation, founder-led companies, and why the best investments often come with brutal drawdowns. We also cover his new ... more

Ben Inker of GMO joins Excess Returns to break down whether the AI boom is an investment bubble, how it compares to 2000, 2007 and 2021, and why today’s risk may be more about earnings than valuations. We also discuss AI capital spending, market supp... more

YouTube

Ian Smith, portfolio manager at William Blair, joins Excess Returns to break down emerging markets, global diversification, and why EM may offer a very different opportunity set than US stocks. We discuss AI capex, the role of Korea, Taiwan, China an... more

Tobias Carlisle joins Excess Returns to discuss why today’s market may be setting up a major opportunity in value stocks, small caps and micro caps. We cover stretched market valuations, AI capex, SpaceX and other massive IPOs, the risk of speculativ... more

YouTube

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Recent Guests

Joe Davis
Global Chief Economist and Global Head of the Investment Strategy Group at Vanguard
Vanguard
Episode: We Asked Vanguard’s Chief Economist Why AI Has Two Huge Tails — And Which One Wins
Brent Kochuba
Head of market intelligence at Spot Gamma
Spot Gamma
Episode: The Three Cracks in the AI Trade | Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Aahan Menon on What Could Derail the Market's Biggest Bet
Adam Parker
Guest, market strategist and former executive
Chief Market Strategist (as discussed in episode)
Episode: Cheap Is a Warning, Not a Thesis | Adam Parker on What This Market Is Really Pricing
Gene Munster
Managing Partner, Deepwater Asset Management; founder of Intelligent Alpha
Deepwater Asset Management / Intelligent Alpha
Episode: Is AI Still in 1995? Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on the Next Phase of the AI Boom
Jeremy Grantham
Investor, co-founder of GMO
GMO
Episode: Jeremy Grantham on AI, Bubbles and Why Mean Reversion Lives On
Marc Rubinstein
Author and founder of the Net Interest newsletter
Net Interest (Substack)
Episode: He Studied the Financial System for Decades | Marc Rubinstein on Where the Real Risk Is
Edward Chancellor
financial historian, journalist, and investment strategist
GMO (formerly) and author of The Price of Time and other works
Episode: He Wrote the Book on Bubbles | Edward Chancellor on If AI is Different
Rich Bernstein
Investment thinker and guest
Independent investor
Episode: We Asked Rich Bernstein and Chris Davis Why This Market Isn’t as Safe as It Feels
Kevin Muir
MacroTourist, focuses on market narratives and flows
MacroTourist
Episode: We Asked Ben Hunt, Jim Paulsen, Kevin Muir and Brent Kochuba Why Bad News Can’t Break This Market

Hosts

Jack Forehand
Host of Excess Returns at Excess Returns
Justin Carbonneau
Co-host of Excess Returns at Excess Returns
Matt Zeigler
Host and co-host, known for Last Call and investing analysis

Reviews

4.7 out of 5 stars from 177 ratings
  • Pick guests more carefully

    I very much enjoy your podcasts, topics and guests. However I feel you crossed the line with Tony Greer and let him move your Podcast into the political sphere. I am going to guess that’s not what your typical listeners want to hear. Still on board and looking forward to new and unique topics - but please stay away from extreme thinkers who spew garbage to churn their niche asset class.

    Apple Podcasts
    4
    Triple Gee
    United States5 months ago
  • Tony Greer

    Tony Greer= one star, hard to take investment advice from such a blow hard.

    Apple Podcasts
    1
    maybdihjlz
    United States5 months ago
  • Tony Greer's appearance

    This was by far the poorest show I've heard from an otherwise useful podcast series. Tony Greer spouts data-free opinions about directions of markets and the economy without any challenge from the host. I don't mind a contrarian, but I expect to hear a well-reasoned set of opinions backing up contrarian views. In this case nothing but tripe. And generally, great investors don't focus on politics, as they try to make money no matter who is running the show, but politics was a massive basis for ... more

    Apple Podcasts
    1
    Davechem 1
    United States5 months ago
  • Dichotomy

    This show has some of the best guests (thoughtful/apolitical/hard research based) and some of the worst guests (narrative based/psuedo-research based/politically biased). Too bad, it could easily be so much better.

    Apple Podcasts
    3
    Davidjschultz
    United States5 months ago
  • 4th turning 🌎

    I’m so glad you guys have finished with Grant Williams now. Squee

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Qrrvjkgxhjlkvg
    United States6 months ago

Listeners Say

Key themes from listener reviews, highlighting what works and what could be improved about the show.

Hosts let guests talk and challenge with solid questions.
Thoughtful guests and deep-dive data discussions are a hallmark.
Content is consistently valuable for long-term investing.

Chart Rankings

How this podcast ranks in the Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube charts.

Apple Podcasts
#85
United States/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#45
Canada/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#54
United Kingdom/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#116
Canada/Business
Apple Podcasts
#137
United Kingdom/Business
Apple Podcasts
#79
Australia/Business/Investing

Talking Points

Recent interactions between the hosts and their guests.

We Asked Vanguard’s Chief Economist Why AI Has Two Huge Tails — And Which One Wins
Q: How should an investor think about the balance between AI-driven growth and traditional risk factors like oil prices and tariffs?
Investors should view AI as one factor among many on a ledger; while AI may lift growth, other headwinds exist, so portfolios should be diversified with risk controls and calibrated tilts to handle multiple outcomes.
We Asked Vanguard’s Chief Economist Why AI Has Two Huge Tails — And Which One Wins
Q: Which sectors could benefit most from AI beyond the tech space?
Beyond technology, likely beneficiaries include financial services and healthcare, with other services like education and business services also poised to see automation and new revenue opportunities as AI enables new platforms and products.
We Asked Vanguard’s Chief Economist Why AI Has Two Huge Tails — And Which One Wins
Q: What inning do you think we're in with AI as a megatrend?
The data suggest there's a long runway with the AI megatrend, and we're in an ongoing build-out phase where momentum could stay strong for a couple of years before potentially transitioning to a broader adoption cycle across industries.
Cheap Is a Warning, Not a Thesis | Adam Parker on What This Market Is Really Pricing
Q: What do you think about the idea that we might be in a stock market bubble, and how should investors position themselves given that debate?
The notion of timing a top is extremely difficult, and even top minds with access to vast data can be wrong. A pragmatic approach is to neutralize exposure to overleveraged segments while seeking diversified AI revenue streams and maintaining flexibility in positioning rather than trying to call a precise peak.
He Studied the Financial System for Decades | Marc Rubinstein on Where the Real Risk Is
Q: What should investors watch in bank earnings given the current credit cycle dynamics?
Investors should scrutinize not just headline earnings but the quality of loan books, delinquencies, and off-balance-sheet exposures. The dichotomy between consumer confidence data and actual spending signals a complex macro backdrop, so pay attention to credit loss provisions, loan growth versus risk controls, and the resilience of funding and liquidity.

Audience Metrics

Listeners, social reach, demographics and more for this podcast.

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Frequently Asked Questions About Excess Returns

What is Excess Returns about and what kind of topics does it cover?

This show focuses on long-horizon investing, blending quantitative and fundamental approaches to value, factor, and macro themes. Episodes frequently cover market regimes, AI impacts on investing, capital cycles, and the tension between passive and active strategies, all with guests ranging from legendary value investors to quants and macro strategists. Listeners can expect rigorous analysis, data-driven discussions, and candid debates about risk, timing, and portfolio construction, with a practical emphasis on durable, repeatable approaches over short-term calls. A notable strength is the mix of deep-dive guests and accessible explanations, making sophisticated finance topics approachable for professional and serious individual investors a... more

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Which podcasts are similar to Excess Returns?

These podcasts share a similar audience with Excess Returns:

1. The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing
2. Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
3. The Acquirers Podcast
4. Top Traders Unplugged
5. Forward Guidance

How many episodes of Excess Returns are there?

Excess Returns launched 7 years ago and published 525 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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What guests have appeared on Excess Returns?

Recent guests on Excess Returns include:

1. Joe Davis
2. Brent Kochuba
3. Adam Parker
4. Gene Munster
5. Jeremy Grantham
6. Marc Rubinstein
7. Edward Chancellor
8. Rich Bernstein

To view more recent guests and their details, simply upgrade your Rephonic account. You'll also get access to a typical guest profile to help you decide if the show is worth pitching.

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