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Excess Returns

Excess Returns
Artificial Intelligence
Inflation
S&P 500
Investment Strategies
China
Options Trading
Federal Reserve
Value Investing
Volatility
Gold
Emerging Markets
Private Equity
Private Credit
Investment Strategy
Warren Buffett
Market Dynamics
Spacex
Market Trends
Risk Management
Labor Market

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

PublishesDailyEpisodes563Founded7 years ago
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Latest Episodes

David Rosenberg returns to Excess Returns to explain his bullish case for Treasury bonds, why he expects inflation and economic growth to slow, and the risks he sees in an AI-driven stock market. The Rosenberg Research founder joins Matt Zeigler to d... more

Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson joins Matt Zeigler to explore how AI, blockchain tokenization, and private markets are reshaping investing and asset management. They discuss what these changes mean for individual investors, from personalized por... more

YouTube

Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler on the latest Jim Paulsen Show to explore why booming AI earnings may be masking a weakening U.S. economy, and what that means for stocks, bonds, and Federal Reserve policy. Using 27 charts, he examine... more

Former Fidelity president and MFS chairman Bob Pozen joins Excess Returns to discuss retirement investing, the risks in private credit, and why he favors a 90% stock and 10% cash portfolio for investors who can cover their living expenses without sel... more

YouTube

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Recent Guests

John Kerschner
Global head of Securitized Products, CLO, ABS, CMBS, MBS at Janus Henderson
Janus Henderson Investors
Episode: Everyone Hates Bonds. Why Two Bond Managers Say You're Hating the Wrong Ones
Mike Contopoulos
Head of multi-asset macro investing, macro models, multi-sector strategies at Janus Henderson
Janus Henderson Investors
Episode: Everyone Hates Bonds. Why Two Bond Managers Say You're Hating the Wrong Ones
Dan Niles
Founder of Niles Investment Management
Niles Investment Management
Episode: Bearish Into November. Room to Run After: Why Dan Niles Is Watching Hyperscaler Credit Default Swaps
Kevin Muir
MacroTourist, author and trader
MacroTourist
Episode: The Profits Come Now. The Costs Come Later. Kevin Muir on Whether AI Earnings Are the Bubble
Bob Robotti
Founder and chief investment officer at Robotti & Company and Hay Value Investors
Robotti & Company; Hay Value Investors
Episode: We Asked Value Legend Bob Robotti Why the Real AI Trade Isn't AI — And Why Passive Helps Stock Pickers
Dom Rizzo
Portfolio manager of T. Rowe Price's global technology equity strategy and the firm's technology ETF
T. Rowe Price
Episode: We Asked T. Rowe's $8 Billion Tech Manager Why We Are in 1998 — And Why Software Is in Trouble
David Rosenberg
Economist and former Merrill Lynch colleague
Rosenberg Research & Associates
Episode: David Rosenberg and Rich Bernstein on What Ends the AI Trade — And What They Own Instead
Tian Yang
Head of Research at Variant Perception; PM of VPX ETF
Variant Perception
Episode: 4% Inflation. Stretched Valuations. Why Is the Market Still Risk-On? | Tian Yang
Dave Nadig
Director of research
ETFdb / ETF Trends
Episode: A $20B Blowup. A War-Sized AI Bet. Was the Bottom Just a Margin Call? | Last Call

Hosts

Matt Zeigler
Host of Excess Returns; focus on macro, portfolios, and market structure
Jack Forehand
Host; leads discussions on macro, value, and systematized investing
Justin Carbonneau
Co-host; oversees research-driven investment discussions

Reviews

4.7 out of 5 stars from 187 ratings
  • Pick guests more carefully

    I very much enjoy your podcasts, topics and guests. However I feel you crossed the line with Tony Greer and let him move your Podcast into the political sphere. I am going to guess that’s not what your typical listeners want to hear. Still on board and looking forward to new and unique topics - but please stay away from extreme thinkers who spew garbage to churn their niche asset class.

    Apple Podcasts
    4
    Triple Gee
    United States8 months ago
  • Tony Greer

    Tony Greer= one star, hard to take investment advice from such a blow hard.

    Apple Podcasts
    1
    maybdihjlz
    United States8 months ago
  • Tony Greer's appearance

    This was by far the poorest show I've heard from an otherwise useful podcast series. Tony Greer spouts data-free opinions about directions of markets and the economy without any challenge from the host. I don't mind a contrarian, but I expect to hear a well-reasoned set of opinions backing up contrarian views. In this case nothing but tripe. And generally, great investors don't focus on politics, as they try to make money no matter who is running the show, but politics was a massive basis for ... more

    Apple Podcasts
    1
    Davechem 1
    United States8 months ago
  • Dichotomy

    This show has some of the best guests (thoughtful/apolitical/hard research based) and some of the worst guests (narrative based/psuedo-research based/politically biased). Too bad, it could easily be so much better.

    Apple Podcasts
    3
    Davidjschultz
    United States8 months ago
  • 4th turning 🌎

    I’m so glad you guys have finished with Grant Williams now. Squee

    Apple Podcasts
    5
    Qrrvjkgxhjlkvg
    United States8 months ago

Listeners Say

Key themes from listener reviews, highlighting what works and what could be improved about the show.

Thoughtful, well-researched guests and deep-dive analyses.
Audience appreciates pragmatic investing takeaways and data-driven discussions.
High-quality guests and host questions drive clear explanations of complex topics.

Chart Rankings

How this podcast ranks in the Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube charts.

Apple Podcasts
#103
United States/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#55
Canada/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#90
United Kingdom/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#161
Canada/Business
Apple Podcasts
#80
France/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#109
Germany/Business/Investing

Talking Points

Recent interactions between the hosts and their guests.

Bearish Into November. Room to Run After: Why Dan Niles Is Watching Hyperscaler Credit Default Swaps
Q: What is the one lesson you teach the average investor?
Downside protection matters most because you never know which stock will explode or fail; avoid leverage and focus on controlling downside risk, as bubbles can break abruptly even when big profits seem likely.
Bearish Into November. Room to Run After: Why Dan Niles Is Watching Hyperscaler Credit Default Swaps
Q: What is one investing belief you hold that most peers would disagree with?
I believe that simply buying and holding certain stocks indefinitely is moronic because survivorship bias hides the fact that leaders like AOL, Yahoo, or Nokia can be taken down; you must stay flexible and adjust as facts change.
Sticky Inflation. Cheap Volatility. A Less Predictable Fed. Why Aren’t Markets More Worried?
Q: What is driving the current inflation picture beyond headline metrics?
Aahan Menon explains that breadth and demand-based inflation are driving persistent pressure across components, meaning inflation could stay sticky even if some oil-driven or supply shocks ease.
The Profits Come Now. The Costs Come Later. Kevin Muir on Whether AI Earnings Are the Bubble
Q: How might leverage ETFs impact market stability?
They magnify daily moves and can trigger forced selling near stop-out points, creating feedback loops that amplify declines and can lead to systemic risk if a big sector collapses.
The Profits Come Now. The Costs Come Later. Kevin Muir on Whether AI Earnings Are the Bubble
Q: What is the core concern about AI-driven earnings growth?
The guest argues that while AI investments boost near-term earnings, the benefits are front-loaded and may not translate into sustainable cash flow; this creates a bubble in earnings that could unwind as the true economics catch up to inflated expectations.

Audience Metrics

Listeners, social reach, demographics and more for this podcast.

Listeners per Episode
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Location
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Frequently Asked Questions About Excess Returns

What is Excess Returns about and what kind of topics does it cover?

A thoughtful, data-driven discussion on macroeconomics, investing strategies, and the evolving tech landscape, with frequent focus on AI capex, market regimes, and how capital allocation shapes asset prices. Episodes commonly explore how AI spending, policy, and monetary dynamics influence returns, along with practical portfolio construction ideas, risk management, and the pros/cons of active versus passive approaches. Notable twists include a strong emphasis on narrative frameworks, historical analogies, and a mix of veteran investors and macro researchers offering both cautionary and opportunistic takes. It's likely to appeal to listeners who enjoy rigorous analysis, quantitative context, and long-horizon investing perspectives that blend... more

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Which podcasts are similar to Excess Returns?

These podcasts share a similar audience with Excess Returns:

1. The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing
2. Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
3. The Acquirers Podcast
4. Forward Guidance
5. Top Traders Unplugged

How many episodes of Excess Returns are there?

Excess Returns launched 7 years ago and published 563 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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What guests have appeared on Excess Returns?

Recent guests on Excess Returns include:

1. John Kerschner
2. Mike Contopoulos
3. Dan Niles
4. Kevin Muir
5. Bob Robotti
6. Dom Rizzo
7. David Rosenberg
8. Tian Yang

To view more recent guests and their details, simply upgrade your Rephonic account. You'll also get access to a typical guest profile to help you decide if the show is worth pitching.

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