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Artwork for Bayesian Supercycle

Bayesian Supercycle

Eli Goldfine
Prediction Markets
Regulation
AI Safety
5CC Capital
Center For AI Safety and Governments

Prediction markets will be good for humanity if done right. itsnotgambling.substack.com

PublishesWeeklyEpisodes4Founded4 months ago
Categories
InvestingBusiness

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Artwork for Bayesian Supercycle

Latest Episodes

Get full access to Bayesian Supercycle at itsnotgambling.substack.com/subscribe

Get full access to Bayesian Supercycle at itsnotgambling.substack.com/subscribe

Get full access to Bayesian Supercycle at itsnotgambling.substack.com/subscribe

Get full access to Bayesian Supercycle at itsnotgambling.substack.com/subscribe

Key Facts

Accepts Guests
Contact Information
Podcast Host

Recent Guests

Mikhail Samin
guest speaker on prediction markets and AI safety
Center for AI Safety and Governments (referenced in discussion)
Episode: Interview with Mikhail Samin
Adhi Rajaprabhakaran
Co-founder of 5CC Capital, investor in prediction markets
5CC Capital
Episode: Interview with Adhi Rajaprabhakaran and Noah Zingler-Sternig
Noah Zingler-Sternig
Co-founder of 5CC Capital, trader and liquidity provider
5CC Capital
Episode: Interview with Adhi Rajaprabhakaran and Noah Zingler-Sternig
Flip Pidot
Founder/Executive involved with American Civics Exchange and various prediction market initiatives
American Civics Exchange
Episode: Bayesian Supercycle Interview w/Flip Pidot

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Talking Points

Recent interactions between the hosts and their guests.

Polyfactual on Bayesian Supercycle
Q: What features are you hoping to build in the future?
The forward path includes expanding front-end tooling, enabling easier front-end creation for others (like a Shopify for prediction markets), and continuing to explore underserved areas such as DeFi integrations and more accessible API tooling.
Polyfactual on Bayesian Supercycle
Q: So how are you integrating AI into your products right now?
They're using a custom LLM integrated across the terminal, news feed, and the Faxbase geopolitical tracker to assess probabilities and suggest strategies, with the AI helping surface predictions and trades tied to articles and data from multiple exchanges.
Interview with Mikhail Samin
Q: How do you think prediction markets could practically influence AI safety funding and research priorities?
Prediction markets could help allocate resources to high-impact safety research by monetizing outcomes and offering prizes, thereby encouraging innovative approaches and better evaluation of safety proposals.
Interview with Mikhail Samin
Q: What are your views on the idea of random exploration in government prediction markets to avoid overfitting to current market signals?
The guest argues that a small probability of random policy selection can help break correlations and gather uninformative signals, recommending a mix of market-driven choices and exploratory actions.
Interview with Mikhail Samin
Q: Your hot take on Claude Mythos told us to what extent Anthropic's approach may differ in inference to the broader public.
The guest suggests that controlling access and understanding of model capabilities is key, with concerns about how fast progress continues and how much public perception should drive policy, while acknowledging the complexity of predicting AI timelines.

Audience Metrics

Listeners, social reach, demographics and more for this podcast.

Gender Skew
Location
Interests
Professions
Age Range
Household Income
Social Media Reach

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Bayesian Supercycle launched 4 months ago and published 4 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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What guests have appeared on Bayesian Supercycle?

Recent guests on Bayesian Supercycle include:

1. Mikhail Samin
2. Adhi Rajaprabhakaran
3. Noah Zingler-Sternig
4. Flip Pidot

To view more recent guests and their details, simply upgrade your Rephonic account. You'll also get access to a typical guest profile to help you decide if the show is worth pitching.

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