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The Intangible Economy with Kai Wu

Excess Returns
Intangible Assets
Base Rates

The Intangible Economy with Kai Wu explores the hidden forces reshaping the modern economy and their implications for investors. AI and the broader technology revolution are changing how we live, work, and create value. In each episode, Kai sits down with investors, researchers, and other experts to discuss how innovation and other intangible forces - such as brands, human capital, and network eff... more

PublishesMonthlyEpisodes2Founded4 months ago
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Artwork for The Intangible Economy

Latest Episodes

Edward Chancellor joins Kai Wu to discuss what financial history and capital cycle theory can teach investors about today’s AI boom. They explore why transformative technologies can still produce terrible investor returns, how overinvestment develops... more

This episode of The Intangible Economy explores how AI, intangible assets, and unprecedented capital investment are reshaping the future of markets. Michael Mauboussin joins Kai Wu to break down why today’s AI expectations may be historically unmatch... more

Kai discusses his new research paper "Suriving the AI Capex Boom"

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Recent Guests

Edward Chancellor
Financial historian, journalist, and investment strategist
GMO (former)
Episode: What Past Capital Cycles Can Teach Us About AI with Edward Chancellor
Michael Mauboussin
Investment strategist and author, guest on the episode
Episode: Michael Mauboussin: Base Rates, AI Adoption, and Investing in the Intangible Economy
Kai Wu
Founder of Sparkline Capital; researcher focusing on intangible assets and capital cycles
Sparkline Capital
Episode: Surviving the AI Capex Boom

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Apple Podcasts
#40
Finland/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#46
Poland/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#103
Switzerland/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#125
Finland/Business
Apple Podcasts
#192
South Korea/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#199
Hong Kong/Business/Investing
Apple Podcasts
#215
Poland/Business
Apple Podcasts
#249
Norway/Business/Investing

Talking Points

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What Past Capital Cycles Can Teach Us About AI with Edward Chancellor
Q: Do you think the AI market will see demand materialize enough to meet the vast supply, or are we overestimating how much demand there is?
There is a history of overestimating demand in tech booms (e.g., railways, data traffic during the dot-com era); current demand may be more modest than hype suggests, particularly given potential limitations in AI capabilities and the risk of hallucinations.
What Past Capital Cycles Can Teach Us About AI with Edward Chancellor
Q: So the topic I wanted to start with is, what does the history of capital cycles teach us about how the AI data center boom may play out?
History suggests successive waves are triggered by new tech, with initial exuberance followed by a shakeout where profits compress as competition intensifies; the winners emerge only after a period of consolidation, and many investors end up with suboptimal outcomes.
Michael Mauboussin: Base Rates, AI Adoption, and Investing in the Intangible Economy
Q: What are the main three factors you consider as pillars for a tech/AI company to achieve such growth, and how do you assess the risk of not achieving them?
The three pillars are a great product, top-tier talent, and the capital to scale; balancing these simultaneously is difficult, and the magnitude of capital needs makes it an ongoing test of whether the economics permit sustained outsized growth, with a heavy dependence on market timing and execution.
Michael Mauboussin: Base Rates, AI Adoption, and Investing in the Intangible Economy
Q: One of the biggest questions today is how investors should be thinking about navigating the current AI boom. How do you frame this using base rates?
Base rates offer a reality check by comparing expected growth to a long historical reference class; while OpenAI may have breathtaking growth in forecasts, the historical distribution shows such outcomes are unprecedented, so investors should hedge expectations with probability-weighted scenarios, considering diffusion, TAM, and the capital needs required to sustain such growth.

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1. Excess Returns
2. The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing
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4. Behind the Balance Sheet
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The Intangible Economy launched 4 months ago and published 2 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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