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A podcast from FHN Financial looking at the most important things driving fixed income markets and the macroeconomy. Every episode features experts who give unique insights on topics like the regional banking landscape, commercial real estate, or how to translate Federal Reserve policy into market strategies. Tune in to better understand what’s been moving markets lately, and what to keep an eye o... more

PublishesTwice monthlyEpisodes82Founded3 years ago
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Latest Episodes

Investors often use inflation swaps and breakevens — the difference in yields between nominal Treasuries and TIPS — to deduce market participants’ inflation expectations. These measures also change from new TIPS issuance, shifting inflation risk, and... more

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The Strait of Hormuz’s closure has driven up prices for fertilizer and diesel, two inputs essential for agricultural production. Considering how farmers pre-buy fertilizer and crops take months to grow, the higher costs may not be fully passed on to ... more

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The term premium — investors’ compensation for holding longer-term Treasuries instead of T-bills — fluctuates with inflation uncertainty, federal deficit worries, and central banks’ balance sheets. The New York Fed’s Adrian, Crump, and Mönch model es... more

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Changes in foreign migration caused US population growth to slow last year and potentially turn negative in 2026. Federal programs and private debt markets structured around an assumption of growth must now contend with the possibility of a shrinking... more

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Recent Guests

Alexis Maxwell
Senior Analyst for Fertilizer with Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
Episode: Alexis Maxwell on How Rising Fertilizer Costs Drive Food Inflation
Emanuel Mönch
Professor of Financial and Monetary Economics at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
Episode: Emanuel Mönch on the Post-Pandemic Term Premium
Stan Veuger
Senior Fellow in Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute
American Enterprise Institute
Episode: Stan Veuger on the Economic Risks of Population Decline
Jeff Lacker
Former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2004-2017)
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Episode: Jeff Lacker on Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet
Rachel Ziemba
Geopolitical analyst and founder of Ziemba Insights
Ziemba Insights
Episode: SPECIAL PODCAST: Rachel Ziemba on the Strait of Hormuz
Fabio Natalucci
Managing Director at the Andersen Institute for Finance and Economics
Andersen Institute for Finance and Economics
Episode: Fabio Natalucci on the Rise and Risks of Private Credit
Chad Syverson
Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago
University of Chicago
Episode: Chad Syverson on the Causes and Effects of a Productivity Boom
Joe Kane
Fellow at the Brookings Institution focusing on infrastructure issues
Brookings Institution
Episode: Joe Kane on the Infrastructure Demands of AI Data Centers
Bill Nelson
Chief Economist and Chief Research Officer at the Bank Policy Institute
Bank Policy Institute
Episode: Bill Nelson on the Withering Fed Funds Market

Host

Will Comprinall
Host of Simply Put, focused on translating macro trends into market insights.

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Talking Points

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Alexis Maxwell on How Rising Fertilizer Costs Drive Food Inflation
Q: Can you give a concrete example or anecdote that illustrates how fertilizer shocks translate to farming outcomes?
Sri Lanka's 2021 fertilizer ban forced a switch to organic fertilizer, causing a 25% drop in rice yields from trend, underscoring how policy-driven supply shocks can sharply reduce output when inputs are constrained and substitutes are inefficient.
Alexis Maxwell on How Rising Fertilizer Costs Drive Food Inflation
Q: What is the universe of fertilizer alternatives, and are there options that are immune to these price changes?
Alternatives are limited for nitrogen and phosphates. Ammonium sulfate can be used, but China's export ban on nitrogen and phosphate materials constrains substitutes. Organic options carry significantly lower nitrogen content and are not a perfect replacement, making it hard to fully offset higher prices in the near term.
Alexis Maxwell on How Rising Fertilizer Costs Drive Food Inflation
Q: Alexis, how should we think about the ways the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are impacting agricultural production?
The impact begins on the supply side, with large portions of nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfur being affected. This tightens fertilizer availability and raises costs, which then feed through to farmers' decisions, crop mix, and ultimately consumer prices with a lag that can stretch over months to years depending on planting cycles and hedging behavior.
Emanuel Mönch on the Post-Pandemic Term Premium
Q: What has driven the term premium down from the 500 bp range in the mid-80s to near zero around 2006, and what factors keep it low in recent years?
Inflation uncertainty declined after the Volcker disinflation period, monetary policy became more predictable, and substantial global demand and budgetary dynamics—along with large balance sheets from central banks—helped compress the term premium, sometimes pushing it into negative territory.
Emanuel Mönch on the Post-Pandemic Term Premium
Q: How is the term premium estimated, and what are the practical ways we estimate it when the 10-year yield sits around 4.40%?
We estimate it using statistical and econometric models that decompose yields into factors, assume certain paths for short rates and risk prices, and then back out the term premium as the gap between observed yields and the model's implied path of future short rates.

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Frequently Asked Questions About Simply Put

What is Simply Put about and what kind of topics does it cover?

This program leans into macroeconomics, fixed income markets, and the policy landscape that moves rates, yields, and credit. Episodes frequently feature deep dives with economists, policy researchers, and industry analysts who translate central bank actions, inflation dynamics, and geopolitics into actionable market implications. A recurring through-line is how monetary policy, balance sheet actions, and fiscal developments shape risk premia, duration risk, and investment strategies for fixed income and capital markets. Notable episodes blend rigorous analysis with practical takeaways for investors navigating evolving policy regimes, energy and infrastructure themes, and technology-driven productivity shifts. A standout aspect is the consis... more

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1. On the Balance Sheet®
2. WSJ Your Money Briefing
3. WSJ's Take On the Week
4. Money Guy Show
5. Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing

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Simply Put launched 3 years ago and published 82 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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What guests have appeared on Simply Put?

Recent guests on Simply Put include:

1. Alexis Maxwell
2. Emanuel Mönch
3. Stan Veuger
4. Jeff Lacker
5. Rachel Ziemba
6. Fabio Natalucci
7. Chad Syverson
8. Joe Kane

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