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Sentinel Minutes

Sentinel Team
Iran
Ukraine
Russia
Artificial Intelligence
United States
China
Venezuela
Geopolitics
Trump Administration
Gaza
Israel
Openai
Taiwan
Donald Trump
Middle East
Economy
Trump
Us-Iran Nuclear Talks
Anthropic
Trump Tariffs

What are the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks each week? We parse millions of news pieces a week to find out. Sentinel is a foresight team and emergency response team seeking to anticipate & react to large-scale catastrophes, particularly those of a speculative nature. Learn more at sentinel-team.org

PublishesWeeklyEpisodes79Foundeda year ago
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NewsTechnologyNews Commentary

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Latest Episodes

Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US-Iran ceasefire broke down, and the US did not end up sending a delegation for a fresh round of talks in Oman.

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Will Iran take fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning of 202... more

No dramatic global cyberattacks yet :(

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Russia closed its railway border crossings with Estonia, Latvia and Finland, prompting speculation about a possible mobilization of troops.

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Before January 2, 2027, wi... more

& Federal Reserve Independence & a deadly fungus.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Shipping traffic markedly rose in the Strait of Hormuz before falling back because of renewed fighting between the US and Iran, who later agreed to a renewed ceasef... more

Ebola is really about to take off.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: A peace deal between the US and Iran was officially signed by both parties, and traffic subsequently rose in the Strait of Hormuz but remained well below pre-war levels. Ukraine c... more

Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US and Iran announced that a peace deal has been agreed. Putin acknowledged that Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory are harming Russia's economy.

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Before 2027, will a ceasefire (covering land, sea and ... more

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Iran and Israel exchanged fire for the first time since the fragile ceasefire began in April. A Ukrainian maritime drone crashed into a Black Sea port in Romania.

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Before September 2026, will a NATO country in... more

Executive summary

Geopolitics: A Russian drone hit an apartment building in Romania, injuring two people. Israel continues to strike Lebanon and Gaza.

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Will at least 10,000 deaths in Gaza and Lebanon be attributed to Israeli military action... more

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump said that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is near. Rubio called Cuba a leading state sponsor of terror and questioned whether diplomacy with the regime would work.

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Will the US carry out ... more

Key Facts

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Host

Nuño Sempere
Host of Sentinel Minutes; part of Sentinel Team; regular co-presenter.

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Talking Points

Recent interactions between the hosts and their guests.

“Making sense of Israel’s strikes on Iran” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater
Q: What is the likelihood of a nuclear response from Iran?
Its likelihood varies based on Iran's current military capabilities and the internal political situation, but the strikes have heightened this risk.
“Making sense of Israel’s strikes on Iran” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater
Q: What are the implications of Israel's strikes on Iran?
They could escalate tensions significantly, potentially leading to Iranian retaliation and affecting global oil supply.

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Frequently Asked Questions About Sentinel Minutes

What is Sentinel Minutes about and what kind of topics does it cover?

A weekly risk-forecast program that blends geopolitics, technology, and biosecurity to surface probability-driven insights about near-term and longer-term global threats. Episodes assemble a panel of forecasters to quantify risks, discuss scenario-based outcomes, and connect macro trends in energy, markets, and security to technology policy and governance. Notable strengths include explicit probability ranges, multi-voice analysis, and timely coverage of AI governance, international tensions, and public-health risks, making it useful for risk managers, policy professionals, and strategic planners seeking to anchor decisions in systematic forecasting. A distinctive angle is the integration of AI model developments and cyber risk with geopoli... more

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Sentinel Minutes launched a year ago and published 79 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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