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Sentinel Minutes

Sentinel Team
Iran
Ukraine
Russia
United States
Artificial Intelligence
China
Venezuela
Trump Administration
Gaza
Israel
Geopolitics
Taiwan
Donald Trump
Middle East
Trump
Us-Iran Nuclear Talks
Openai
Trump Tariffs
National Guard
Economy

What are the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks each week? We parse millions of news pieces a week to find out. Sentinel is a foresight team and emergency response team seeking to anticipate & react to large-scale catastrophes, particularly those of a speculative nature. Learn more at sentinel-team.org

PublishesWeeklyEpisodes74Foundeda year ago
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Executive summary

Geopolitics: Iran and Israel exchanged fire for the first time since the fragile ceasefire began in April. A Ukrainian maritime drone crashed into a Black Sea port in Romania.

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Before September 2026, will a NATO country in... more

Executive summary

Geopolitics: A Russian drone hit an apartment building in Romania, injuring two people. Israel continues to strike Lebanon and Gaza.

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Will at least 10,000 deaths in Gaza and Lebanon be attributed to Israeli military action... more

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump said that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is near. Rubio called Cuba a leading state sponsor of terror and questioned whether diplomacy with the regime would work.

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Will the US carry out ... more

Executive summary

Technology and AI: The US and China discussed AI guardrails to mitigate risks from frontier AI models.

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Will the US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027 in which both governments state or clea... more

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Host

Nuño Sempere
Host of Sentinel Minutes; part of Sentinel Team; regular co-presenter.

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“Making sense of Israel’s strikes on Iran” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater
Q: What is the likelihood of a nuclear response from Iran?
Its likelihood varies based on Iran's current military capabilities and the internal political situation, but the strikes have heightened this risk.
“Making sense of Israel’s strikes on Iran” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater
Q: What are the implications of Israel's strikes on Iran?
They could escalate tensions significantly, potentially leading to Iranian retaliation and affecting global oil supply.

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Frequently Asked Questions About Sentinel Minutes

What is Sentinel Minutes about and what kind of topics does it cover?

A weekly risk-forecast program that blends geopolitics, technology, and biosecurity to surface probability-driven insights about near-term and longer-term global threats. Episodes assemble a panel of forecasters to quantify risks, discuss scenario-based outcomes, and connect macro trends in energy, markets, and security to technology policy and governance. Notable strengths include explicit probability ranges, multi-voice analysis, and timely coverage of AI governance, international tensions, and public-health risks, making it useful for risk managers, policy professionals, and strategic planners seeking to anchor decisions in systematic forecasting. A distinctive angle is the integration of AI model developments and cyber risk with geopoli... more

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1. LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
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3. 80,000 Hours Podcast
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5. Plain English with Derek Thompson

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Sentinel Minutes launched a year ago and published 74 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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