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Odds on Open

Ethan Kho
Hedge Funds
Artificial Intelligence
Venture Capital
Investment Strategies
Risk Management
Citadel
Generative AI
Investment Migration
Quantitative Finance
Startups
Alternative Data
Quantitative Trading
Founders
Residency By Investment Programs
Golden Visa Programs
Machine Learning
Quant Trading
Portugal
Spain
High-Frequency Trading

Conversations with leading thinkers on trading and investing. Hosted by Ethan Kho. Produced by Patrick Kho.

PublishesWeeklyEpisodes66Foundeda year ago
Number of ListenersCategory
Business

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Artwork for Odds on Open

Latest Episodes

In this episode of Odds on Open, former Balyasny Asset Management (BAM) quantamental portfolio manager and Imply founder Ying Hua breaks down how top multi-manager hedge funds synthesize quantitative discipline with discretionary analysis to extract ... more

In this episode of *Odds on Open*, hedge fund risk manager and derivatives trader Erik Smolinski deconstructs the structural mechanics of alpha generation, portfolio construction, and risk mitigation in liquid markets. Boasting a near-100% return las... more

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In this episode of Odds on Open, we dissect the mechanics of institutional alpha generation with Rich Falk-Wallace, founder of Arcana and former portfolio manager at Citadel. Rich explains why the vast majority of hedge fund failures stem from flawed... more

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Apply to Onyx’s trading event here: www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/uni-studentsIn this episode of Odds on Open, former Two Sigma quant Omer Seider joins host Ethan to deconstruct how top-tier quantitative hedge funds systematically aggregate discre... more

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Recent Guests

Omer Seider
Ex-Two Sigma quant, discusses how human judgment and expert opinion feed into systematic alpha
Two Sigma (former)
Episode: Ex-Two Sigma Quant: You Should Bet Against Bullish Analysts
Neel Somani
Former Citadel quant researcher and commodities trader
Nex Citadel
Episode: Ex-Citadel Quant on Trading the Most Asymmetric Market - Neel Somani
Victor Hagani
LTCM co-founder
LTCM
Episode: LTCM Co-founder Victor Hagani: “Taking Risk Is Always a Negative.”
Izzy Englinder
Guest/host-like participant posing questions to DeWayne
Episode: Quant Hedge Fund Partner: Raising Capital Is Harder Than Generating Returns
Leigh Drogen
CIO of Starkiller Capital, quant fund
Starkiller Capital
Episode: The Secret to Uncorrelated Alpha in Crypto - Leigh Drogen on Starkiller Capital’s Sharpe Ratio of 4
George Livadas
Founder and portfolio manager of a one-man hedge fund
Independent fund manager
Episode: “Market Crashes Are Good for My Strategy” - One-Man Hedge Fund PM George Livadas
Matt Schrager
TD Quant
TD
Episode: “If it is easy and obvious, there is no edge in it” - TD Quant Matt Schrager
Sean Emory
Guest investor discussing data-driven strategies and ETF launch
Avery (implied) / hedge fund context
Episode: “Concentrated Strategies Will Do Extremely Well” - Sean Emory on Outperforming the Index
Scott Phillips
Quant Trader and founder focusing on crypto market edges and mid-frequency strategies
Hyper Trend / DeFi hedge fund infrastructure (as described in the episode)
Episode: “It’s the Dumbest Market in the World” - Quant Trader Scott Phillips on Edge in Crypto

Host

Ethan Kho
Host of Odds on Open

Chart Rankings

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Apple Podcasts
#250
Italy/Business
Apple Podcasts
#229
Spain/Business

Talking Points

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Ex-Two Sigma Quant: You Should Bet Against Bullish Analysts
Q: What happens when analysts become very bullish or very bearish?
The guest notes that overconfident, extreme positions often precede meaningful price reversals; the prudent course is to bet against such crowds, especially when the mood is extreme, as the first contrarian view can indicate a turning point. This phenomenon ties to how surprise and delay in information dissemination create exploitable alphas.
Ex-Two Sigma Quant: You Should Bet Against Bullish Analysts
Q: Hey, when I look at the back end of our data, how does the program blend quant signals with discretionary insights from analysts?
The guest explains that crowd-sourced expert opinions provide context and nuance that pure models miss. By collecting structured opinions from experts across industries and turning them into normalized, frequent surveys, Two Sigma and peers can capture the propagation of information and the alpha that arises when opinions shift. The process is designed to balance broad input with selective weighting over time, using both financial incentives and informational incentives to sustain participation.
LTCM Co-founder Victor Hagani: “Taking Risk Is Always a Negative.”
Q: Can one person beat the market sustainably for a long period of time?
It's possible for professionals and some skilled individuals, but for non-professionals, sustained positive risk-adjusted returns are very unlikely; the framework should emphasize systematic risk taking and diversification rather than chasing outsized single-stock bets.
LTCM Co-founder Victor Hagani: “Taking Risk Is Always a Negative.”
Q: How do you think about framing risk and sizing for ordinary investors?
Start by quantifying risk in terms of expected return and risk-adjusted return, set a constant fraction of wealth to invest per decision (like a Kelly-based approach), and explicitly account for the cost of risk as a self-imposed fee to ensure you're compensated for bearing risk.
LTCM Co-founder Victor Hagani: “Taking Risk Is Always a Negative.”
Q: Your trades at LTCM had edge and still blew up. How were you right and ruined at the same time?
The core idea is that the edge was real in the sense of potential profits from the investments, but the sizing decisions magnified losses and overshadowed the gains, showing that risk management and position sizing are as crucial as the investments themselves.

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Frequently Asked Questions About Odds on Open

What is Odds on Open about and what kind of topics does it cover?

The show curates deep-dive conversations with high-signal practitioners in trading, investing, and finance, often emphasizing quantitative approaches, risk management, and edge generation. Episodes frequently center on how to source alpha through data, technology, and disciplined processes, with guests ranging from hedge fund founders and quant traders to oil markets insiders and decision-science thinkers. A standout theme is the blend of rigorous investing frameworks with candid, practical storytelling about building firms, raising capital, and navigating complex markets. Listeners are likely to gain actionable frameworks, real-world episode takeaways, and a taste for ambitious, edge-focused investing across asset classes and geographies.

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Which podcasts are similar to Odds on Open?

These podcasts share a similar audience with Odds on Open:

1. Flirting with Models
2. Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry
3. Yet Another Value Podcast
4. Excess Returns
5. Alpha Exchange

How many episodes of Odds on Open are there?

Odds on Open launched a year ago and published 66 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

How do I contact Odds on Open?

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What guests have appeared on Odds on Open?

Recent guests on Odds on Open include:

1. Omer Seider
2. Neel Somani
3. Victor Hagani
4. Izzy Englinder
5. Leigh Drogen
6. George Livadas
7. Matt Schrager
8. Sean Emory

To view more recent guests and their details, simply upgrade your Rephonic account. You'll also get access to a typical guest profile to help you decide if the show is worth pitching.

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