這集我們聊預測市場,一種讓人用真金白銀押注事件結果的交易平台。
2024年美國大選前,所有主流媒體都說這是一場五五波的選舉。但有一個地方不這麼認為。PolyMarket上,數萬人早就用錢投票,賠率一面倒看川普贏。選後矽谷炸了,不是因為川普贏了,而是因為大家突然意識到:這個平台,居然比CNN、比所有民調都更準。
這集我們從「市場到底怎麼比媒體更聰明」講起,介紹Kalshi和PolyMarket兩大平台的玩法與差異,也會仔細拆解預測市場跟傳統博弈平台到底哪裡不一樣:賠率誰來定、資訊有沒有價值、你... more
五月二十六號,全世界最有名的 AI 老闆終於鬆口:「關於 AI 搶工作,我錯了!」十三天後,他的公司遞交了上市申請。另一個喊了兩年末日的人,也在同一個月換了說法、遞了件。
這集我們把這條時間線一個一個攤開來問:他們是真心改變了看法、還是上市前有人需要你別再害怕?我們會從矽谷工程師「再不上車就來不及」的集體焦慮講起,拆解為什麼「安心」的故事在 IPO 前比「末日」更值錢,並直視 Anthropic 一邊呼籲監管、一邊加速開發的爭議。台上叫你別擔心的人跟台下睡不著的人,其實是同一個故事的兩面。
本集介紹
你上一次健康檢查,醫生跟你說「一切正常」——你真的放心了嗎?
這一集,法蘭克把自己的一份完整血檢報告攤開,和Andrew一起帶你看一件很多人沒想過的事:「正常」不等於「最佳」。我們這一代人——學生時期比學歷、出社會比履歷,結果老了,大家都在比病歷。而那本病歷怎麼寫,其實 30 歲的你,現在就已經在下筆了。
順著 Dr. Peter Attia《Outlive》的框架,我們聊:
・為什麼絕大多數人最後都死在同一組慢性病,而它們早在發病前幾十年就開始累積
・三個你每年體檢都看到、... more
先說結論:今年那場「上車發財」的兆元 IPO 狂歡,搞不好就是一個替你準備好的陷阱。
今年那斯達克會迎來三場史無前例的 IPO——SpaceX、OpenAI、Anthropic,每一家估值都上看兆元美元。新聞會告訴你,這是錯過就沒了的世紀機會。但今天這集,我想先講一件不會被寫進標題的事:這場狂歡裡,有人是賓客,有人是買單的。
而最讓人不安的是——你根本不用去買任何一支個股。只要你手上有一檔再普通不過的指數基金,一條五月才悄悄改掉的規則,就會讓你的帳戶在最貴的那一刻,自動接下這史上最大的一筆 ... more
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矽谷咖啡館 Silicon Cafe launched 5 months ago and published 59 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.
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