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Artwork for 升维:不确定时代的决策博弈

升维:不确定时代的决策博弈

罗小新读书

升维是战略和创新的核心,是突破“囚徒困境”“内卷”现象的出路所在。在不确定环境、“算无可算”的条件下,升维是最大化机会的决策原则。本书将复杂系统中起关键作用的枢纽节点与体现决策思维的博弈论做了开创性的结合,构建了系统性的决策思维体系。通过博弈结构的变化,即升维,能突破“囚徒困境”;与一般运营决策不同,战略、创新和危机管理都属于博弈结构维度变化的典型形式。

PublishesDailyEpisodes34Foundeda year ago
Language
ZH-CN
Categories
CareersEntrepreneurshipBusiness

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Artwork for 升维:不确定时代的决策博弈

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因为现实中的人是有限理性的,未来是不确定的。如果有趣的思想在这两个条件下还可以成立,它就会成为有用的东西。这本书就是我用有限理性和不确定性两个视角来审视那些有趣的思想而写作出来的,我认为,经得起有限理性和不确定性验证的有趣的思想就会成为有用的工具。

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a year ago

与游戏的输赢相比,更重要的是把游戏玩下去。我们要考虑清楚的一件事是,我们要的是有限游戏,还是无限游戏。只想着输赢,以输赢判定胜负是一种决策策略,但更高维度的决策是把游戏玩下去。前者是一种有限游戏思维,后者是一种无限游戏思维。

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a year ago

我们需要建立一套系统的决策分析框架,既可以反映维克瑞、卡尼曼等伟大思想家的内在逻辑,也将相关理念整合成一个系统性的决策思维工具,使之运用于寻找不确定性中的确定性,为我们的决策提供具体指导。

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a year ago

在确定性决策下,收益矩阵已知,决策者按照利益最大化做决策;在不确定性决策下,博弈结构都可能完全未知,这时候,决策者最理性的做法是最大化自己的机会

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a year ago

我一直在思考一个问题:未来十年哪些东西是不会变的? ——杰夫·贝佐斯(Jeff Bezos)

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a year ago

不确定性决策不是为了消灭不确定性,而是为了顺应不确定性,并且,你的决策还会带来新的不确定性。悬崖策略中的弱势一方之所以选择站在悬崖边,并不是为了消灭不确定性,而是为了创造新的不确定性。

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a year ago

在不确定性条件下应该如何决策,解释了什么制度或条件会鼓励人说实话。

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a year ago

对博弈论做了面对现实的拓展,因为这才是符合现实的,这样既是构建真实世界的博弈视角,也是为有限理性和不确定性条件下的博弈论提供了一个思考框架。

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a year ago

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升维:不确定时代的决策博弈 launched a year ago and published 34 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.

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