韭菜之聲｜散戶敢問，大戶敢說
奎叔白天在 IPO 輔導公司看盡上市內幕，下班後是個流著賭徒血液的台股散戶。 每週三固定上架，週五或六擇一天上架。大戶座談不定時上架 本節目從散戶視角出發，邀約大戶與業內人士座談，挖出那些刷新三觀的市場觀點。 Apple | Spotify | Youtube | Instagram Powered by Firstory Hosting
| Publishes | Twice weekly | Episodes | 27 | Founded | 3 months ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Language |  ZH-TW | Number of Listeners | Categories | InvestingBusiness |
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這兩天我在Threads上瘋狂發圖卡，就是因為盤勢進入了說的驗收期。當大家還沉浸在 Computex 的美夢時，市場已經開始悄悄換位置。這集我們要來拆解幾個讓我們清醒的數據真相：,
• 破解 6-9 月魔咒： 我回測了 10 年數據，發現 6-9 月最大回撤平均 -29.58% 確實很慘，但主因不是月份。真相是：只要我們挑的是前 5 個月漲最兇的那群，後面本來就很容易被洗掉三成。 不是 6 月有鬼，是漲多股的地心引力一定會回歸。,
• 低容錯的驗收期： 為什麼華邦電跌停？它不是輸給財報，是輸給... more
這禮拜的台股簡直是一個超級熱鬧的大夜市，黃仁勳、蘇姿丰來台灣，讓全世界的聚光燈都打在供應鏈上。但我們要小心，錢多、題材多，不代表每一檔都能閉著眼睛買。
• 名牌 vs. 收銀機： 被 NVIDIA 寫進名單，就像拿到展場名牌，代表有資格進場被討論，但不保證營收。名牌能不能變成收銀機，要看 6 月後的「驗收期」毛利率守不守得住、5 月營收有沒有接上，才是真功夫。
• AI 故事的層次感： 以前是買伺服器，現在黃爸爸講得是 「AI 工廠」。這讓 鴻海、緯創、技嘉 這些 ODM 廠的角色從代工變成系... more
• ABF 三雄的殘酷內部分化： 別再以為 ABF 是一起漲跌。欣興 (3037) 站上千金寫歷史，景碩 (3189) 五天大漲 19.7% 變成大黑馬；但南電 (8046) 竟然逆勢跌了 9%。這告訴我們：AI 純度不夠，就算大盤噴千點也只能吃土。
• 外資的「千億級」壓注： 外資連續兩週爆買合計 1,564 億，這不是隔日沖，是看好 AI 長線的「長錢」正在集體補票。
• 緯穎 vs. 英業達的標籤檢查： 同樣是 AI Server，為什麼我說緯穎 (6669) 的漲停只是「回吐後的反彈」，... more
這週市場很亢奮，黃仁勳與蘇姿丰來台灣，讓 AI 題材從台積電一路擴散到聯發科、台達電、甚至記憶體與封測 。今天想聊的是：當大家都在尖叫追高的時候，你該怎麼判斷這場戲演到哪了？
這集我們不講玄學，直接拆解「停利」這門藝術：
* 資金效率 vs. 完美賣點： 我在 5/14 把晶豪科賣在 237 元（獲利 43%），雖然隨後它又漲了幾塊，但我把這筆錢換到華邦電，又多咬到一段 26% 的漲幅 。波段不是比誰賣在最高，是比誰能把錢換到更有效率的位置。
* 估值的三把尺： 為什麼循環股（記憶... more
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Apple Podcasts | #28 |  Taiwan/Business/Investing |
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韭菜之聲｜散戶敢問，大戶敢說 launched 3 months ago and published 27 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.
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