5/1勞動節,剛好趁今天沒開盤好好研究臻鼎-KY,詳細的資料會放在threads
小補充:
節目裡我把三集瑞直接講成 AI 散熱,這邊講得太快了。
更精準是 AI server 電源 / 磁性元件需求。
現在的台股就像周年慶的百貨公司,門口排滿人,但錢變得很現實。精品店大排長龍,美食街卻沒人逛;這不是沒錢,是市場開始變挑了。
• 鄰居更貴法則: 為什麼市場最近瘋狂追逐 臻鼎-KY?當隔壁鄰居欣興、南電本益比都 70 到 100 倍時,30 倍的臻鼎看起來就變得很「合理」。這不是便宜,是比... more
台股首破四萬點,但這是一場「一個人的武林」。當台積電權重高達 44.3%,金管會一張「台積電條款」公文,直接成了中小型股的拔管令。這集要拆解這個殘酷的資金遊戲:
• 消失的 1,600 檔: 大盤漲 684 點那天,全台有 1,600 檔股票在跌。投信被新規則推著去買台積電,手上的錢哪裡來?就是把你的中小型股拋售換現金。
• 熱門題材的撤退潮: CPO(矽光子)和低軌衛星故事很美,但上詮、光聖、啟碁為什麼跌掉兩成?市場現在不願意為這個故事付錢,資金正在集體出走。
• 長興 (1717) 的... more
這兩天新聞很有趣:大盤衝 39K 時分析師說要挑戰四萬,下午殺下來後又說「早就有訊號」。這就叫「球評式分析」——比賽打完才從一堆數據裡挑出理由來解釋。, 奎叔想聊聊,當市場在情緒面前暴走,你該看的是趨勢還是波動?
• 分析師的劇本: 事情發生後講得都很準,但 4/22 收盤前怎麼沒人先說會崩?別再找人幫你的虧損找合理化解釋了。
• 長興 (1717): 獲利縮水到 16% 我還是不動。主力剛進場,除非他們大賠退場,否則我留在場內等拉抬。
• 三集瑞 (6869): 雖然帳面套牢 12% 卻... more
這禮拜市場發生了兩件極端的事:全台灣多了 33 萬個新股民(包括你剛考完指考的表弟跟你阿嬤),但同時,有個看盤老手在金居 (8358) 一次賠掉了 1 億 1 千萬,寫下台股史上最大違約交割紀錄。
為什麼「專業老手」會死得比「股市小白」還慘?奎叔想跟你聊聊那個致命的幻覺:
* K 線圖與 539 樂透: 阿伯看著 30 期開獎號碼說「數字 7 該出了」,跟你盯著 K 線圖說「連 10 紅該跌了」,在本質上是一模一樣的硬找規律。
* 熟成韭菜的代價: 新手頂多賠掉幾萬塊,但深信自... more
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韭菜之聲|散戶敢問,大戶敢說 launched 2 months ago and published 17 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.
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