非共识的20分钟
Jason的投资思考20分钟讲明白一个复杂事件 Jason Huang： 北大金融&历史 9年VC，投资消费互联网 蔡崇信家族办公室前中国区负责人 美元对冲基金NDV创始人: 2年~4x回报 20min.contrarian@gmail.com -- Hosting provided by SoundOn
| Publishes | Daily | Episodes | 42 | Founded | 3 months ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Language |  ZH-CN | Number of Listeners | Categories | EducationBusinessInvesting |
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核心判断
2008 之后，美联储最大的变化不是「更爱放水」，而是把沟通本身变成了一项政策。神秘感曾经是一种权力，解释能力是另一种——它的代价是央行被自己的话绑架。
关键事实
— 2008 年 11 月公告 QE 购买上限：机构债 1,000 亿美元 + 机构 MBS 5,000 亿美元；2009 年 3 月扩大到 2,000 亿 + 1.25 万亿。
— QE 不是「印钱」：央行用自己的资产负债表，接住市场不愿意接的久期与风险。
— 2011 年，伯南克召开美联储史上第一次 ... more
核心判断
2008 真正爆掉的不是房子，是一整套金融系统用二十年时间，把脆弱、相关性极高的资产，包装成了「看起来很安全」的东西。房子只是入口，真正的主角是抵押品链条。
关键事实
— 危机两年间，全美家庭净资产从约 69 万亿美元缩到约 55 万亿，蒸发量约等于一整年的美国 GDP；失业率从 5% 升到 10%。
— 标普 500 从 2007 年 10 月高点到 2009 年 3 月低点下跌 57%；全国房价从 2006 年中高点下跌约 30%。
— 抵押品（collater... more
核心判断
格林斯潘上半场最深远的影响，不是某一次救了市场，而是从他开始，交易员把「央行会怎么反应」写进了自己的定价模型。Greenspan put 不是一个正式承诺，是一种集体默认——跌到尾部，央行大概率会出来兜。
关键事实
— 1987 年 10 月 19 日「黑色星期一」，道琼斯指数单日下跌 22.6%，至今仍是美股史上最大单日跌幅。
— portfolio insurance（组合保险）的同向触发，把单纯的下跌放大成系统性踩踏——伤人的不是火本身，是踩踏。
— 危机次日... more
有些加息不是政策调整，是信用急救。沃尔克真正做的，是把美元信用从通胀预期里抢回来。
这是美联储长青系列第 3 集。上一集我们讲了 70 年代大通胀里，伯恩斯和米勒怎样被政治、就业和预期约束住；这一集，我们讲沃尔克为什么不是简单加息，而是在用痛苦重建美元信誉。
沃尔克最重要的动作，不是把利率加到多高，而是重新定义了央行信誉的来源。
你将听到：
- 1980 年美国 CPI 通胀 13.5% 意味着什么
- 30 年固定房贷利率冲到 18.63% 时，普通家庭和企业承受了什么 more
Chart Rankings
How this podcast ranks in the Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube charts.
Apple Podcasts | #193 |  Taiwan/Business/Investing |
Audience Metrics
Listeners, social reach, demographics and more for this podcast.
| Listeners per Episode | Gender Skew | Location | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interests | Professions | Age Range | |||
| Household Income | Social Media Reach | ||||
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非共识的20分钟 launched 3 months ago and published 42 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.
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