非共识的20分钟
Jason的投资思考20分钟讲明白一个复杂事件 Jason Huang： 北大金融&历史 9年VC，投资消费互联网 蔡崇信家族办公室前中国区负责人 美元对冲基金NDV创始人: 2年~4x回报 20min.contrarian@gmail.com -- Hosting provided by SoundOn
| Publishes | Daily | Episodes | 23 | Founded | 2 months ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Language |  ZH-CN | Number of Listeners | Categories | InvestingBusinessEducation |
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截至2026年3月，玉米约480美分/蒲式耳，小麦约600美分，大豆约1150美分。三种主要粮食作物全部接近或低于生产成本。这是近30年来最便宜的定价区间之一。
但化肥占种植成本的20-30%，化肥的核心原材料是天然气。伊朗南帕斯气田被攻击——全球最大天然气田之一。天然气涨→化肥涨→种植成本被抬高→粮价的成本线上移。而粮价本来就在成本线上了，几乎没有缓冲。
2022年俄乌战争，小麦从$8涨到$13+，涨幅超60%。1973年石油危机后，粮价6-9个月内全面上涨。
这次传导链正在走第三遍。 more
AI模型要算力，算力要数据中心，数据中心要电——大量的电。2024到2026年科技巨头资本开支超过5000亿美元，IEA预测全球数据中心电力需求到2026年底增长超70%。
但电从哪来？中国有完整的光伏风电储能产业链。美国呢？面板和电池主要从中国进口，关税超过45%。新能源建不起来，天然气占美国发电的43%，是最大单一来源。
同时中东战争损毁了全球最大天然气田之一。上游在收窄，下游在扩大。能源价格的底部正在被系统性抬高。
也许AI时代真正的赢家不是写代码的，而是发电的和挖气的。你怎么看？ more
3月23号，特朗普宣布暂停对伊朗能源基础设施的打击5天，称与伊朗进行了"非常好的对话"。油价当天暴跌11%，比特币从6.8万反弹到7万。市场管这叫TACO——Trump Always Chickens Out。
但几个小时后，伊朗官方媒体否认与美国有任何接触。同一天，伊朗向以色列北部发射导弹，碎片落在萨法德。特朗普自己在暂停声明不到一个小时后又发了48小时最后通牒。
这期拆一个问题：关税可以一个人TACO，战争需要所有人同时TACO。这次真的够用吗？
你觉得这次TACO和以前一样吗？评论... more
BofA每个月做一个全球基金经理调查。2026年1月，「做多黄金」成为#1最拥挤仓位，占比51%。2月，仍然是#1，读数50%，连续两个月。
这什么意思？
不是说黄金不能涨。黄金过去一年已经涨了约70%，最高摸到$5,040/盎司。很多机构的峰值预期是$6,200。
但这期，我想单独把一件事讲清楚：「这个东西长期会涨」和「现在是个好的入场点」，是两件完全独立的判断。
历史上有一个非常具体的对照组：
2011年，黄金冲到$1,920/盘司的历史高点。那时候，所有人都在讲美联储Q... more
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非共识的20分钟 launched 2 months ago and published 23 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.
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