非共识的20分钟
Jason的投资思考在这里，不聊 K 线，只谈逻辑。每一期 20 分钟，我们透过“技术变量”与“人性常量”的双重滤镜，去拆解当下的商业热点（Crypto & AI）。坚持第一性原理，拒绝陈词滥调，在这个充满噪音的世界里，带你 Follow the Money，寻找那些非共识的获利真相。 -- Hosting provided by SoundOn
| Publishes | Daily | Episodes | 16 | Founded | a month ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Language |  ZH-CN | Number of Listeners | Categories | InvestingEducationBusiness |
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这期聊一个中文世界绝大多数投资者完全忽略的报告——但每个月10号左右，全球的大宗商品交易员都会屏住呼吸等它出来。
它叫WASDE(世界农产品供需估计),由美国农业部每月发布，是全球农产品市场的「月度成绩单」。有多重要?这么说吧：2022年5月，WASDE把美国小麦期末库存预测大幅下调，当天小麦期货在10分钟内跌了6%。一份政府报告，让全球粮价在一个上午就重新定价了。
3月的WASDE将在3月10日发布。
今年农产品市场的背景特别有意思：
· 玉米：$4.25附近，已经在这个价格区... more
今天在飞机上下来12点到家就临时加录了一期，聊美伊。
本来是不猜打不打，没想到录完就打了。光速剪辑完后，我还是想说三件大多数财经内容没有认真拆过的事。
一、特朗普提伊朗，他的利益在哪？
有一个很少被注意到的内在张力：他的能源政策要求油价低，但伊朗冲突推高油价。所以他需要伊朗足够紧张，让沙特愿意主动增产——但又不能真的打，因为打了油价失控，他自己也输。这不是矛盾，这是一盘棋。
二、如果真的动手，最可能是哪种？
2025年6月他已经打过一次（代号Midnight Hammer，3... more
⻩⾦本周突破$5,000/盎司，年涨超70%。买⻩⾦的⼈都说：美债要出问题。但没多少⼈能说清楚：
历史上，储备货币是怎么⾛向终结的？荷兰盾⽤了将近⼀百年，英镑⽤了两场世界⼤战，明朝的财政系
统是另⼀种死法。了解这个路径，才知道你的⻩⾦应该拿多久。
3条⾦句
1. 储备货币的终结不是闪崩——是慢慢地被边缘化，然后某天回头，才发现已经不在中⼼了。
2. 英镑的教训：只有财政问题，没有替代者，还不够崩。
3. ⻩⾦$5000，不是终点。是市场开始定价个它说不清楚速度的演绎过程 more
英特尔、奇梦达、尔必达——三家全球前五的存储芯片巨头，技术一流，全部倒在了同一件事上。
现在三星、SK海力士、美光在同时建新厂。18到24个月以后会发生什么？
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声明：本节目旨在提供分析框架与历史视角，所有内容均为信息分享与学术探讨，不推荐任何具体投资标的或操作。投资决策请基于个人独立研究。
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Chart Rankings
How this podcast ranks in the Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube charts.
Apple Podcasts | #107 |  Hong Kong/Business/Investing |
Apple Podcasts | #171 |  Japan/Business/Investing |
Apple Podcasts | #177 | China/Business/Investing |
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Listeners, social reach, demographics and more for this podcast.
| Listeners per Episode | Gender Skew | Location | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interests | Professions | Age Range | |||
| Household Income | Social Media Reach | ||||
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非共识的20分钟 launched a month ago and published 16 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.
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