
20分钟讲明白一个复杂事件 Jason Huang: 北大金融&历史 9年VC,投资消费互联网 蔡崇信家族办公室前中国区负责人 美元对冲基金NDV创始人: 2年~4x回报 20min.contrarian@gmail.com -- Hosting provided by SoundOn
| Publishes | Daily | Episodes | 53 | Founded | 4 months ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Language | Number of Listeners | Categories | InvestingBusinessEducation |

2026 年 6 月 16-17 日,凯文·沃什将首次以美联储主席身份主持议息会议。利率期货定价显示约 98% 的概率利率不动,但这场「无聊的会」是观察新美联储的第一个窗口。本期把沃什的「发言」拆成五种类型,逐一对应不同的资产传导管道,并以 1 月 30日提名日的市场反应作为实证:当天他未谈及任何政策,贵金属却出现 1980 年代以来最差单日 ——市场为他重新定价的,从来不是利率。
核心判断:
市场争论「沃什是鹰是鸽」,这个问题从一开始就问错了。他影响市场的管道几乎都不经过利率:他的任命... more
这是球星卡系列的大结局。
三句话看完本集:
• 机会:足球卡落后篮球卡的 5 年差在机制,不在热度;世界杯是窗口,但窗口不等于结果。
• 风险:故事断崖、评级集中、流动性幻觉——越迷人的市场,越需要边界。
• 视野:球星卡只是入口,我们这一代正在把共同记忆翻译成新的资产形态。
这一集想讲清楚三件事:足球卡和篮球卡之间真实的机制差距,2026 年世界杯为什么可能是足球卡的补课窗口,以及这个市场最容易伤人的地方。
足球卡落后篮球卡的 5 年,差的不是热度,而是机制成熟度。足球是全球... more
我已经很久没忍不住给人安利工具了,这一期讲一个我每天离不开的 AI。
语音输入法:你对着它随便说,再碎、再没逻辑的话,它都能当场理成一段通顺、能直接用的文字。
立即免费体验(支持电脑 + 手机,免费可用,按住一个键就能说。说明:这是我的推荐链接,你用它下载我可能有点小福利——但我推荐它纯粹因为真好用。给它三天,过了对着设备说话的别扭期,你大概率会离不开。)
它不只是把语音转成文字,而是把“想清楚”和“写清楚”拆开:你只管说,逻辑和措辞,它来收拾。
关于团队:为什么这产品对中文友好 more
核心判断:
那 32 枚比特币(约 250 万美元)几乎不是为了换现金——同一周公司增发普通股净募约 1.283亿美元才是补血主力。卖币是一个信号:对优先股投资者说「我能卖币付你股息」,对普通股股东说「我不会违约」。它真正暴露的,是资本结构里「谁先拿钱」的排序开始紧张,以及一个控制权解决不了的新约束——每年约 16–17 亿美元、必须用现金支付的优先股股息。
关键事实:
— 2026-05-26 至 31,公司卖出 32 枚比特币、约 250 万美元,均价约 77,135 美元,为2... more
How this podcast ranks in the Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube charts.
Apple Podcasts | #120 | |
Apple Podcasts | #145 |
Listeners, social reach, demographics and more for this podcast.
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非共识的20分钟 launched 4 months ago and published 53 episodes to date. You can find more information about this podcast including rankings, audience demographics and engagement in our podcast database.
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