左兜进右兜
右兜聚焦美股市场：研报解读、技术分析、交易逻辑。 不追热点，只讲有价值的思考。 经历过辉煌与低谷，如今更懂得如何在市场中寻找确定性。
| Publishes | Daily | Episodes | 309 | Founded | a year ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Language |  ZH-CN | Number of Listeners | Categories | BusinessTechnology |
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2025 年已经结束，这一期节目，对我的模型交易做一次完整的年度回顾。
把全年放在一起，从结果、错误、结构和系统变化几个角度，系统梳理这一年的真实情况。
本期节目主要内容包括：
• 2025 年主要美股指数的表现对比
• 我的模型在 2025 年的整体收益情况
• 对全年最大一次错误交易（UVIX）的复盘与反思
• 正股与杠杆品种在模型中的边界问题
• 全年收益贡献结构与核心标的回顾
• 模型系统在 2025 年的更新与调整
• 对 2026 年交易节奏的基本判... more
我们每天都在讨论 AI、算力、GPU 和模型参数，但有一个更底层的问题，正在被越来越多的人忽略——
如果没有电，这一切其实都无法运转。
本期节目，基于 SemiAnalysis 于 2025 年 12 月发布的一份深度研究报告《How AI Labs Are Solving the Power Crisis》，系统讨论一个正在发生、但尚未被充分定价的变化：
AI 正在把电力系统，从“长期效率优先”，推向“速度优先”。
我们会聊到：
• 为什么电网并没有“崩溃”，却已经跟不上 AI 的扩... more
过去七年，“做多美国、做空中国”几乎是全球资产配置中最成功的一笔结构性交易。
美股持续跑赢，中国资产长期承压，“美国例外主义”逐渐成为一种被默认接受的前提。
但如果这个前提正在发生变化呢？
本期节目，我们解读一份并不常见、却极具代表性的宏观研报，来自独立研究机构 Gavekal，发布时间为 2025 年 12 月 9 日。
这份报告并不讨论短期行情，而是从地缘政治、产业政策与资产定价的角度，重新审视“美国例外主义”与“中国不可投资”这套叙事是否仍然成立。
我们会聊到：中国在过去几年究竟牺牲... more
圣诞行情，其实并没有黄金的涨幅来得明显。
黄金今年的累计涨幅已经超过 60%。这再次说明，一条长期逻辑一旦看准，真正重要的不是反复修正，而是持续执行，忽视短期的噪音波动。
如果事后诸葛亮一次，今年的策略，与其来回切换，不如干脆满仓半导体指数，或者满仓黄金。
但问题也正出在这里。
归根结底，这是一个关于集中持仓还是分散持仓的问题。
分散持仓时，抓到一两个大涨的标的，心理感受往往很好，但拉长来看，账户的实际收益却并不突出；
而如果明确看好一个方向，选择集中持仓，就必须承受另一种煎熬——
比如今... more
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Apple Podcasts | #235 | China/Business |
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