外资重磅
小乐实验室本专辑聚焦全球顶级投行、外资机构发布的最新研究报告，拆解宏观经济、A 股市场、行业趋势的核心逻辑。用专业、易懂的方式，帮你看懂外资视角下的中国资产定价逻辑，把握市场主线与投资机会。适合关注财经动态、市场策略的投资者与从业者收听。
| Publishes | Daily | Episodes | 38 | Founded | a month ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Language |  ZH-CN | Number of Listeners | Categories | Business NewsInvestingNewsBusiness |
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Latest Episodes
油价在二零二六年上半年走了一次过山车：地缘冲突一度把布伦特原油推到每桶一百美元以上，随后供应恢复、需求转弱又快速回落到七十美元附近。奇怪的是，油价剧烈波动，中国油气龙头的利润表并没有同步崩掉——中国海油利润继续增长，中国石油实现油价下降但利润仍小幅增长，中国石化炼油修复，中海油服收入也在增长。这期想讲清一个变化：外资现在看中国油气，不是在赌油价方向，而是在做一场现金流筛选。油价决定波动，成本决定生死，现金流决定估值。四家公司其实是四种交易。中国海油是低成本上游：二零二六年一季度净产量两亿零五百一... more
A 股到了四千点以后，市场最重要的问题变了——以前问谁来救急，现在更关键的是谁来接力。这期讲的是 A 股稳定机制的历史演进：从二零零八年救信心，到二零一五年救流动性，再到二零二四年以来的稳定机制二点零。核心观点很简单：真正成熟的行情，不是稳定资金永远站在台前买，而是它可以慢慢退到背景里，险资、公募、上市公司回购、外资被动盘和居民配置资金还能接上。历史对照三段。二零零八年：印花税下调、汇金增持三大行，救的是信心，政策止血之后真正大涨靠的是更大的宏观信用扩张。二零一五年：证金公司增资、央行流动性支持... more
二零二五年贵州茅台收入和利润双双下滑，二零二六年一季度才恢复低个位数增长——连茅台都要靠批价、库存和现金流重新证明自己，白酒还是外资眼里的核心资产吗？这期不讨论喝不喝酒，只问一个更准确的问题：外资是在清仓白酒，还是在给白酒换估值锚？先给结论：白酒没有从核心资产名单里消失，而是从消费成长股，变成了现金流资产、渠道修复题、价格体系压力测试。三颗钉子定位周期。资金账：公开转述里，北向资金持有白酒市值从二零二四年底约一千五百七十六亿元降到二零二五年底约九百六十六亿元，排序从第二位掉到第四位——不是清仓，... more
二零二六年六月二十五日，苹果罕见上调 Mac 和 iPad 售价，理由直指 AI 数据中心抢走内存、相关组件价格涨速前所未见。连全球供应链议价能力最强的苹果都开始把内存成本转嫁给消费者，说明这轮存储涨价已经从内存原厂的利润表，一路传导到普通人的购物账单。这期不复读『半导体国产替代』，而是问：内存超级周期走到了哪一站？海外原厂掌握高价值环节之后，A 股里的国产存储到底吃的是价格、升级，还是库存？先用价格坐标定位周期：集邦咨询统计，二零二六年一季度传统 DRAM 合约价环比上涨约百分之九十三到九十八... more
二零二六年上半年，A 股成交动辄破三万亿，券商被很多人当成牛市印钞机。但外资这次看的不是『券商会不会涨』，而是更冷的一个问题：这轮券商行情，到底只是成交放量带来的短期 beta，还是中国资本市场集中化、国际化带来的长期 alpha？这期把券商和交易所当成资本市场的『卖水人』，但加上风险边界——它是市场活跃度的放大器，不是无风险印钞机。拆四本账加一本估值账。成交账：二零二六年一到五月全市场日均股票成交额约两万六千四百九十七亿元、同比增长约百分之八十九，A 股新开户约一千七百二十九万户、增长约百分之... more
固态电池被称为下一代动力电池的『圣杯』，但截至二零二六年六月，最先让普通人感受到变化的，反而不是全固态，而是比亚迪二代刀片电池和超高功率闪充这类现有锂电体系的继续进化。所以这期不问『固态是不是好技术』，而是问：它到底是真实技术拐点，还是一次提前透支的估值故事？半固态、全固态、锂矿周期、材料出货和整车装车之间，谁先进入财报？把固态电池产业链拆成四层。第一层是已经进财报的电池龙头：宁德时代二零二五年营收四千二百三十七亿元、同比增长约百分之十七，净利润七百二十二亿元、增长约百分之四十二，但利润根基仍是... more
上证指数回到四千点附近，但很多人的账户不像牛市——很多股票还停在大盘三千点时代，甚至更低。以二零二三年十月二十日上证两千九百八十三点为基准，到二零二六年六月十八日约四千零九十点，指数涨了约百分之三十七，可白酒、地产链、部分消费医药和新能源旧龙头不但没涨，反而更低。所以这期真正要问的不是有没有牛市，而是：谁在牛市里，谁还在熊市里？上证四千点后，钱到底在买什么？先把『老登股』拆成四层：广义老登股（银行、白酒、煤炭、石油、电信、电力、公用事业、保险）、红利资产（高股息高分红低估值）、红利质量股（盈利质... more
上一期讲外资加仓中国的三条线，第一条是人工智能与民营科技龙头。这一期把这条线里最核心的一块——港股和中概互联网单独拿出来，对照二零二五年年报和二零二六年一季度最新财报，看它们到底兑现了什么。表面都在讲“互联网龙头讲人工智能”，翻开财报却分成了截然不同的两类：一类利润创历史新高、还在大手笔回购；另一类收入还在涨，利润却被人工智能、云和即时零售的投入压了下去。本期的主问题是：港股互联网这一轮，外资到底该怎么重新定价——是看估值修复，还是看利润、回购和人工智能商业化到底进了哪张表？全篇用“利润兑现能力... more
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