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《外交事务》二〇二六年三/四月号亚洲专题四篇长文的深度导读。
Lampton 与王缉思说美中关系已走到毁灭边缘，但眼下仍有一扇稳住关系的窄窗；Zack Cooper 说转向亚洲已经失败，正把优势拱手让给中国。
Andrew Nathan 借李连江与许成钢两本新书，追问中国共产党到底有多脆弱；Yamini Aiyar 借卡普尔与苏布拉马尼安的《六分之一的人类》，剖析印度模式的裂缝——民主既可以是诅咒，也可以是解药。
政治上，美伊战争越过一条心理红线——约旦成新战场、两名美军阵亡（纽约时报 / 美联社），民调称它是有记录以来美国人最反感的一场战争（经济学人）；特朗普把选举安全工具化（福克斯）、以色列对美影响力集中曝光（华尔街日报 / 纽约时报）。
科技上，Kimi K3 被当成第二个 DeepSeek 时刻，业界首次承认差距只剩两三个月，护城河的讨论从模型移向电力（华尔街日报 / kimmonismus / 大西洋）。
商业上，芯片股回调沿着全球杠杆链条外溢成一场去杠杆、首尔 KOSPI 单周暴跌两成七，... more
《外交事务》二〇二六年七/八月号深度系列的最后一天，主题落回国内——一个国家在海外的实力，最终取决于国内的两块地基：经济与民主。
第一篇《如何挺过 AI 冲击》（银湖资本联合创始人 James Davidson 与达特茅斯塔克商学院院长 Matthew Slaughter 合著）：AI 冲击可能像当年的“中国冲击”，但打的是年轻人和高学历白领，规模更大、速度更快。斯坦福数字经济实验室发现，最易被 AI 替代岗位上 22–25 岁年轻人就业率降 6%；出路是技能税收抵免加工资损失保险，靠一道对股... more
今天几条大线都在往前走。
政治：美伊战争打成消耗战，霍尔木兹海峡日通行量从约130艘暴跌到8艘（AP / NYT）；特朗普选举演讲从“证据落空”转入“恐吓官员”（NYT）；智库称俄罗斯已失去乌克兰主动权（CSIS）；英国换相（AP）。
科技与科学：Kimi K3余波逼Anthropic把Fable 5重新塞回订阅套餐（testingcatalog）；WAIC上京东开源具身数据、壁仞发布千卡光互联（机器之心 / 财新）；美国AI基建撞上举债与缺电（Fortune）。
商业与投资：芯片股跌进熊... more
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Apple Podcasts | #214 |  United Arab Emirates/News/News Commentary |
Apple Podcasts | #248 |  India/News/News Commentary |
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