今天是6月15日,星期一。 今天這集,我們先看一個很大的轉折:美國和伊朗的和平框架,看起來把荷姆茲海峽、制裁、核承諾都放進同一張紙裡,但真正的難題不是紙上怎麼寫,而是 Tehran 內部能不能把它講成一場勝利。同一時間,G7 在法國 Evian 開幕,Ukraine、Gaza、能源和中東代理戰線全部擠進議程。 先從中東開始。 美伊這份六十天和平框架,表面上是一個降溫安排。照目前公開資訊,內容包括伊朗不追求核武、重開荷姆茲海峽,美方釋放約兩百五十億美元的 Iranian frozen assets... more
EP102 今天是6月14日,早安。今天這集,我想先抓一個比較大的變化:世界新聞的主軸,正在從單一戰場,轉成好幾個互相牽動的制度壓力。美伊談判看起來往前走了一步,可是黎巴嫩前線還在動;台海這邊,華府同一天要消化軍售、在野黨訪問、以及對中路線的辯論;科技圈則出現一個很重要的訊號,美國可能不只管晶片,也開始管誰能用最強的 AI 模型。 我們先從時事開始。 今天最需要放在前面的,是美國和伊朗的和平備忘錄。這件事昨天已經有突破訊號,所以今天不能當成全新故事重講一遍;新的事實是,Axios 和 AP 都提... more
第101集。今天是6月13日,早安。 今天最重要的線索,不是某一場戰爭突然結束,而是幾條戰線都走到「快要能談、但還不能相信」的階段。美國和伊朗的和平文本被說成已經接近完成,可是德黑蘭沒有正式背書,黎巴嫩戰線也還沒有被放進同一個框架。另一邊,South Korea 前總統尹錫悅因為平壤無人機案再被判三十年,這讓戒嚴後的政治清算從街頭和國會,進一步走進國安操作本身。 我們先從中東開始。 美國和伊朗今天最像一份還沒簽字的高風險合約。Pakistan 總理夏巴茲說,和平協議的最終文本已經完成;外界看到的... more
第100集,6月12日。 今天這集,先看一個很不穩定的外交時刻:美國和伊朗一邊互相開火,一邊又傳出接近協議。這不是和平已經到來,而是雙方都在試著把軍事壓力翻譯成談判籌碼。第二條主線,是台灣首次把 HIMARS 對著西岸戰略水域實彈演訓,台海訊號從軍購清單,變成更可見的火力展示。後半段轉到科技,今天的關鍵字是 agent。當 AI agent 可以交易、付款、操作工具,安全問題就不再只是模型會不會胡說,而是它能不能替你花錢、替你承擔風險。 先從時事開始。 美國和伊朗,是今天最需要小心解讀的新聞。T... more
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